Congrats for the launch of AskMarkets. Best wishes to your prediction exchange and consulting firm.
Here’-s the perfect opportunity to ask you the “-question that kills”-:
What was the social utility of the political election prediction markets during the 2008 campaign?
In other words, why should the media have informed people about the InTrade probabilities at a time Nate Silver did a near-perfect job forecasting the 2008 US elections?
What’-s the added value of the political election prediction markets over the poll aggregators?
Can you cite one prediction market (other than the “-who’-s gonna become president?”- prediction market) that has a high social utility?
Each time I ask this question to one of the prediction market luminaries (or so they think they are), I get back the same glance I would get from a dead trout —-so I would appreciate if you could attempt to answer my question by publishing a blog post on Midas Oracle.
Chris Masse, bombastic blogger