Dear George,
Congrats for the launch of AskMarkets. Best wishes to your prediction exchange and consulting firm.
Here’-s the perfect opportunity to ask you the “-question that kills”-:
What was the social utility of the political election prediction markets during the 2008 campaign?
In other words, why should the media have informed people about the InTrade probabilities at a time Nate Silver did a near-perfect job forecasting the 2008 US elections?
What’-s the added value of the political election prediction markets over the poll aggregators?
Can you cite one prediction market (other than the “-who’-s gonna become president?”- prediction market) that has a high social utility?
Each time I ask this question to one of the prediction market luminaries (or so they think they are), I get back the same glance I would get from a dead trout —-so I would appreciate if you could attempt to answer my question by publishing a blog post on Midas Oracle.
Best regards,
Chris Masse, bombastic blogger
http://www.midasoracle.org/
Dear Chris bombastic Masse,
first of all, thanx for the link to our launch post, I’d also love to hear your comments on our service.
Then, regarding the challenge you just ‘hurled’ to me, I need to say that I didn’t pay very careful and continuous attention to the US election markets at the max level I’d like to, what’s more, the trading volume at askmarkets was yet far from being considerable.
That said, I’d try to come up with a proper answer, soon.
Dear Chris bombastic Masse,
first of all, thanx for the link to our launch post, I’d also love to hear your comments on our service.
Then, regarding the challenge you just ‘hurled’ to me, I need to say that I didn’t pay very careful and continuous attention to the US election markets at the max level I’d like to, what’s more, the trading volume at askmarkets was yet far from being considerable.
That said, I’d try to come up with a proper answer, soon.