Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: AEI

The American Enterprise Institute’s proposals to legalize real-money prediction markets in the United States of America

The Promise of Prediction Markets – by Kenneth J. Arrow, Robert Forsythe, Michael Gorham, Robert Hahn, Robin Hanson, John O. Ledyard, Saul Levmore, Robert Litan, Paul Milgrom, Forrest D. Nelson, George R. Neumann, Marco Ottaviani, Thomas C. Schelling, Robert J. Shiller, Vernon L. Smith, Erik Snowberg, Cass R. Sunstein, Paul C. Tetlock, Philip E. Tetlock, [...]

The CFTC safe-harbor option for event markets

The recommendation for safe-harbor of a group of influential economists to the CFTC aims squarely at the 4(c)3(K)* clause of the Commodity Exchange Act. The CFTC may approve a public interest exemption under 4(c) provided that the affected contracts are traded only between “appropriate persons”. 4(c)3(k) is the only qualification that would accommodate “retail” [...]

Robin Hanson would be better off “lobbying for prediction markets” with the people who will be in power next November —that is, the Democrats, not the right-wing people of the American Enterprise Institute.

Does Robin Hanson read the political prediction markets which he co-invented? If he read them, he would see that we’re going to get a big Democratic swipe, in November 2008. The American people will get rid of the neo-cons, the warmongers, and other right-wing nuts.
Then, if you wanted to “lobby” for the prediction markets, you [...]

ROBIN HANSON’S PUBLIC ADMISSION: He signed Bob’s petitions, not because he heartfully endorsed them fully, but because he wanted to please Bob, didn’t want to be left out of the party, and was persuaded that his own blue-sky proposals wouldn’t make it —and other irrational excuses for not saying the truth to the US Congress.

Robin Hanson:
Hal and Silas, endorsing this proposal does not mean that I would not prefer other proposals; it just means I prefer this to the status quo. Chris Masse is an example of someone who has difficulty accepting this endorsement concept.
-
Doc,
Why wouldn’t you:

Gather with yourself and determine under what precise circumstances you want the real-money [...]

Economists’ Petition on Prediction Markets

Statement on Prediction Markets – (Click here to read the abstract and download the petition from the SSRN site) – by Kenneth J. Arrow, Robert Forsythe, Michael Gorham, Robert Hahn, Robin Hanson, Daniel Kahneman, John O. Ledyard, Saul Levmore, Robert Litan, Paul Milgrom, Forrest D. Nelson, George R. Neumann, Charles R. Plott, Thomas C. Schelling, [...]

Software Programs for Forecasting + Vertical Directories

Since the field of forecasting does indeed encompass prediction markets, I would suggest to the prediction market software vendors to try to get indexed in this directory, Forecasting Principles. (There aren’t many software packages listed, I’m a bit surprised.)
The Forecasting Principles website is written by three scholars. It is a very usable site, congrats to [...]

Search

Post Categories