Tag Archives: Adam

Enterprise Prediction Markets = The wisdom of crowds comes to the enterprise.

Here are short excerpts of the Forrester report on enterprise prediction markets and companies that provide software for enterprise prediction markets. – The Forrester executive summary: The “wisdom of crowds” is capturing the attention of corporate strategists across the globe, … Continue reading

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Who is the Steve Jobs of the prediction market industry?

The award goes to… the envelope, please… Nigel Eccles. – John Delaney and Emile Servan-Schreiber are good, but they are too much ignorant of information technology. Adam Siegel and David Perry are too much focused on their internal process. BetFair … Continue reading

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Adam Siegel of Inkling Markets has computed that blogging is important to a small business.

Inkling Markets: Here are the jobs we’re currently looking to fill: Director of Business Development Take the reigns to plan and direct Inkling’s ongoing business development efforts. This includes everything from identifying and evaluating new market opportunities, working on public … Continue reading

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DIY enterprise prediction markets as revelators of institutional lies

Adam Siegel of Inkling Markets: Mike, The context of that discussion was talking about allowing people to create their own markets vs. having them only be run by a central entity or only through recommendations by a consulting firm. We … Continue reading

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So far, the Prediction Market Industry Association (PMIA) is a shallow organization run by a bunch of delirium-tremens incompetents. — It sounds too European, too French. — Yeah, it’s too French. — All words and no actions. — Hot air in a golden-painted balloon ready to burst.

Prediction Market Industry Association’s goals as stated last year: 1) Create a central, standardized registry of available prediction stocks and contracts from different prediction markets. This open central resource will help demonstrate the wide coverage of available predictions, facilitate search, … Continue reading

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Based on market data from a tiny prediction exchange (IEM, which is much smaller than InTrade-TradeSports or BetFair), a couple of researchers claim that prediction markets do not have superior predictive power. — And, adding salt to injury, they call our prediction market luminaries (Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers, etc.)… “naive”.

Via Adam Siegel… …of Inkling Markets fame…. – Are Political Markets Really Superior to Polls as Election Predictors? – (draft: PDF file) – by Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien – 2008-05-02 Abstract Election markets have been praised for their … Continue reading

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The best researchers on prediction markets

CFM: Scholars Check that CFM page for updates. And contact me so I can make additions to the list. (I’ll then re-publish that updated list on Midas Oracle.) – Michael Abramowicz – Michael B. Abramowicz – (Law School, George Washington … Continue reading

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Where to find advice on how to set up your enterprise prediction markets

Consultants – - Inkling – URL: Inkling Markets – (Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.) Adam Siegel — Post Archives at Midas Oracle Nathan Kontny – NewsFutures – (Maryland, U.S.A. & Paris, France, E.U.) Emile Servan-Schreiber — Post Archives at Midas Oracle Maurice … Continue reading

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Yet another guy, writing about prediction markets in the mainstream media, who does not master what he is talking about.

Via Adam Siegel of Inkling Markets, John McQuaid of Wired. It’s incoherent to start a rant against prediction markets by this upbeat line, “Prediction markets can be spookily accurate.” He blames the New Hampshire upset on poor liquidity. Where is … Continue reading

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Prediction Markets in the Classroom: Inkling Markets

hile prediction markets have been in the spotlight this year, they are still unfamiliar to many folks. As one small step towards improving their visibility, along with my colleague James Lemieux I ran a prediction market at the University of … Continue reading

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Cases, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 11 Comments