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Polls

Which prediction market analyst was the most spot-on about the Democratic VP prediction markets?

Bo Cowgill

Chris Masse

Tom Snee

Justin Wolfers

Other

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Barack Obama drops hints about who his VP candidate will be. — Might be Evan Bayh.

Time:
QUESTION: One of the biggest moments in the campaign is going to be your announcement of a vice president. What is that decision going to tell voters about you?
BARACK OBAMA: Hopefully, the same thing that my campaign has told the American people about me. That I think through big decisions. I get a lot of [...]

NBC Nightly News ran a story on Monday nite about John Edwards’ lies. And today, the National Enquirer has new revelations. If I were John Delaney of InTrade, or a super user at HubDub, I would have a field day creating some prediction markets about the definitive demise of John Edwards.

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PS: I believe either Rielle Hunter or her sister is feeding the National Enquirer.
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Video

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UPDATE: New York Times
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Why InTrade CEO John Delaney, TradeSports acting CEO John Delaney, BetFair CEO David Yu, HubDub CEO Nigel Eccles and NewsFutures CEO Emile Servan-Schreiber should supplicate me to develop my prediction market journalism project

- 200 web visitors (coming from Google) reached my John Edwards post, published yesterday afternoon (ET).
- 10% of them followed my links to the 2 HubDub prediction markets on John Edwards.
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Remember that those web stats count only the web visitors, not the feed subscribers —who are more numerous, and whom I focus more on.
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TAKEAWAY: A [...]

Marginal Revolution vs. Freakonomics vs. Overcoming Bias vs. Midas Oracle

Here are the stats about the feed subscribers to these blogs who use either Google Reader or iGoogle.
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To interpret these data, you should know that:

The web visitors are not counted.
The PC-based feed subscribers are not counted.
The Web-based feed subscribers who use other feed readers than Google are not counted.
In the case of Marginal Revolution, which [...]

Horizon 2015: A long-term strategic perspective for the real-money prediction markets

Announcing the “Horizon 2015″ group.
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The year 2008 in the field of prediction markets will be marked by these 4 events:

The CFTC will soon announce that InTrade, TradeSports and BetFair are still unwelcomed in the United States of America.
The prediction market academics (with some “notable exceptions“) are all ready to feed on the InTrade trading data, [...]

HubDub will get quoted in the future, just like the Hollywood Stock Exchange is, today… — PROBABILITY = 33%, AT BEST.

HubDub CEO Nigel Eccles:
I fully appreciate the work that Emile and others have done but just because something hasn’t worked before doesn’t mean it can’t happen. [...] Sometimes ideas take time and a fresh perspective before they achieve their full potential. [...]
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My thoughts:

The future is present today as a seed. If we examine today’s seed [...]

Become “friend” with me on Google E-Mail so as to share feed items with me within Google Reader.

Connect with me on GMAIL:
chrisfmasse |-at-| gmail |.|-com-|
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I have just done something really stupid. I accidentally deleted almost all my friends at GMAIL (except the prediction market people). I want to slap my face. If you don’t see me anymore within Google Reader, please re-connect with me. (By defintion, I lost your e-mail address, so [...]

Why I am dropping InTrade from the Midas Oracle coverage of the prediction markets

The first chart is from InTrade “v1″ and the second chart is from InTrade “v2″.
Look how ugly the first chart is.
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My demands:

The v1 charts should as good as the v2 charts.
It should possible to embed a chart without the need to delete the returns at the end of each code line. (NewsFutures is [...]

Alex Costakis of Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX) discussing the Weekend Box Office and Summer Releases and predictions on Fox Business.

Those morons at Fox Business spelled his last name “Kostakis”, in the video.
So, now you know why nobody watches Fox Business —they are all on CNBC, who can spell correctly.
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I’m not sure the video will go into our feed… In case, it does not, download this post, or go to the link above…

Summer Blockbuster’s featuring [...]

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