Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Category Archives: Consulting

Hyping enterprise prediction markets in Mashable

Matt Fogarty of CrowdCast:
Business leaders rely on metrics and data to inform decisions around new products and opportunities, but traditional forecasting methods suffer from bias and lack of first-hand information. That’s why business forecasting is an ideal target for the application of crowd wisdom. While bets are made anonymously, some prediction market software applications [...]

CrowdCast is an enterprise software platform that helps companies make better forecasts by tapping the knowledge stored in their employees.

Interview

Download this post to watch the video —if your feed reader does not show it to you.

Our platform offers a true double-auction trading engine, not a scoring-rule disguised as a market.

That is from our good friend Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures, who is participating in the discussion on the LinkedIn group on prediction markets.
Go read his comment.
Also look at the 2 other threads.

Inkling Markets offers a turnkey prediction market platform that can be set up in a few minutes and an API to extend the platform as need be.

Adam SIegel on the LinkedIn group on prediction markets.

Networks, Crowds, and Markets – Reasoning About A Highly Connected World – by David Easley and Jon Kleinberg

Networks, Crowds, and Markets – Reasoning About A Highly Connected World – by David Easley and Jon Kleinberg
http://www.cs.cornell.edu/home/kleinber/networks-book/networks-book.pdf
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Contents

Chapter 1. Overview

1.1 Aspects of Networks
1.2 Central Themes and Topics

Part I Graph Theory and Social Networks

Chapter 2. Graphs

2.1 Basic Definitions
2.2 Paths and Connectivity
2.3 Distance and Breadth-First Search
2.4 Network Datasets: An Overview

Chapter 3. Strong and Weak [...]

Yet another prediction market “consultant” — PM “consultants” = salesmen / saleswomen.

http://www.dawntkellerconsulting.com/
http://www.dawntkellerconsulting.com/blog/

Based on what metric, exactly?

… asks our good doctor Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures, on the San Francisco clown’s e-mailing list.
The answer is simple: The San Francisco clown (who hides behind the e-mail account of that young lady) will say anything for money. Whoever sponsors his phone-booth conference will be crowned as “the leading provider of prediction market solutions for [...]

How some US-based university professors endorsed a Holland-based consultancy firm

Here is the e-mail that was sent to the prediction market scholars listed on Midas Oracle.:

Dear Mr. [PROFESSOR'S NAME GOES HERE],
I am writing on behalf of [PREDICTION MARKET SOFTWARE VENDOR'S NAME], a Netherlands based consulting firm, because our research has identified you as a scholar with some expertise in Prediction Markets or a related field. [...]

Tap The Collective – The Videos

Inkling Markets have posted the videos on YouTube.
Here is how to download the videos for “TAP THE COLLECTIVE” that are posted on YouTube:

Install any video capture software. (I recommend Video Download Helper because it is more universal, but Easy YouTube Video Download is good enough. Both software packages are extensions for FireFox.)
Go to the YouTube [...]

“Tap The Collective” failed to convince me about the usefulness of enterprise prediction markets.

I don’t see any compelling argument in favor of enterprise prediction markets, so far.
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Robin Hanson:
Prediction markets were designed exactly these sort of hard problems – contributors know they face a risk of losing as well as gaining from their contributions. So folks think a little more carefully about what they might say, and choose [...]

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