Category Archives: Collective Intelligence – Wisdom Of Crowds

The real reasons why prediction markets are accurate. — [LINK]

Emile Servan-Schreiber: – Over the long run and many predictions, markets outperform most individuals; – The more participants there are in a market, the more accurate it is (although there are diminishing returns); – The more participants there are in … Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Larry Page on decision making — [VIDEO]

One of the interesting things that we’ve noticed is that companies correlate on decision making and speed of decision making. There are basically no companies that have good slow decisions. There are only companies that have good fast decisions. I … Continue reading

Posted in Business, Business Administration, Collective Decision Making, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Entrepreneurship, Individual Intelligence - Anti Consensus, Inventions & Innovations | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

A Multi-Agent Prediction Market Based on Boolean Network Evolution — [PAPER]

A Multi-Agent Prediction Market Based on Boolean Network Evolution – PDF file.

Posted in Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Economics, Exchange & Market Designs, Exchanges & Markets, Mechanism Designs | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Though not a legal, registered financial advisor, Justin Wolfers hands out financial ‘advice’ to anyone who is foolish enough to listen. — [SCREENSHOT]

More. – “A financial adviser or stock broker should be licensed to provide any consultation on investment in securities.” -

Posted in Analysis (Market Calls), Betting, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Financial Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism, Predictions - Forecasts, Regulations | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Take 2 in-vogue concepts (which you don’t master), and mix them together. Then, call your PR agent, and try to infiltrate the media to pump up your org. — [VIDEO]

The two keywords to flag to the media are: – collective intelligence, – climate change (a.k.a. global warming).

Posted in Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

What uses for the prediction markets on geopolitical events? — [ANALYSIS]

–> Well researched and balanced article from London School of Economics’s Matthew Partridge: The intelligence and security community also has mixed views. John F McCreary, the Chief Analysis Officer for KGS Security, who had a senior role at the United … Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Emile Servan-Schreiber’s Lumenogic (ex-NewsFutures) harnesses the wisdom of crowds (scientists and engineers) for the US Air Force. — [LINK]

Emile Servan-Schreiber (cited in Bloomberg story): Every company faces the challenge of [finding out] what our company really knows — how do I access it, when I need it, how I need it — to help drive decision-making or results … Continue reading

Posted in Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Consulting, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

How prediction markets help forecast consumers’ behaviors — [REPORT]

Forrester Research’s Roxana Strohmenger has been caught red hand sucking up to our Paul Hewitt. Roxana Strohmenger (e-mail me at chrisfmasse at gmail dot com to get a copy of the report): At the end of the day, a prediction … Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Business, Cases, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Consulting, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Your prediction markets can power the American Civics Exchange. — [IDEA MILL]

American Civics Exchange: Having just executed an initial round of closings for the funding we’ve been raising, we’re entering the final run-up to our real-money trading launch. With that in mind, we’ve launched a community feature where prospective traders (and … Continue reading

Posted in Betting, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchange & Market Management, Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Market Genesis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Paul Hewitt on the usefulness of the prediction markets — [ANALYSIS]

Paul Hewitt: I don’t think there is any question that the usefulness of prediction markets has been exaggerated. We don’t hear much from James Surowiecki anymore. So a few of those polled probably indicated that he doesn’t exaggerate the usefulness … Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment