Category Archives: Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds
Dear MO reader: Why you should try Predictalot
Why should you try Predictalot?
Gamers: Make almost any prediction you can think of about March Madness, the NCAA men’s basketball tournament.
Sports fans: Check the crowd’s odds: Is St. Mary’s the next Cinderella?
Economists: Play with a true combinatorial prediction market with 9.2 quintillion outcomes and a single pool of liquidity, unlike almost any other of today’s [...]
Libertarian journalist John Stossel explained InTrade’s prediction markets, and forgot BetFair.
ABC News, in 2008:
Hyping enterprise prediction markets in Mashable
Matt Fogarty of CrowdCast:
Business leaders rely on metrics and data to inform decisions around new products and opportunities, but traditional forecasting methods suffer from bias and lack of first-hand information. That’s why business forecasting is an ideal target for the application of crowd wisdom. While bets are made anonymously, some prediction market software applications [...]
In spite of Robin Hanson’s pumping them up, very few companies use enterprise prediction markets.
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McKinsey:
While respondents tell us that tapping expert knowledge from outside is their top priority, few report deploying prediction markets to harvest collective insights from these external networks.
#FAIL
The relative advantage of prediction markets (over conventional means of forecasting, namely polls and statistical models) is remarkably… SMALL.
Sharad Goel:
In a new study, Daniel Reeves, Duncan Watts, Dave Pennock and I compare the performance of prediction markets to conventional means of forecasting, namely polls and statistical models. Examining thousands of sporting and movie events, we find that the relative advantage of prediction markets is remarkably small. [...]
Given that sports and entertainment markets are [...]
Debate is raging between Robin Hanson and the futarchy critics
- Robin Hanson comments on Paul Hewitt’s blog.
- Paul Hewitt comments on Eric Crampton’s blog.
- Paul Hewitt comments on Robin Hanson’s blog. Many exchanges with Robin Hanson. Read it all.
- Paul Hewitt:
[...] My point is that the case for prediction markets has not been made, at all. There is a tiny bit of proof that [...]
Robin Hanson: Prediction markets are interesting as forums, not methods.
“Prediction markets aren’t about emphasizing ordinary Joes over credentialed bigshots; they are about emphasizing whomever [] tends to be right.”
CrowdCast CEO Mat Fogarty on how his company is helping businesses make better-informed decisions [VIDEO]
Good questions, good answers:
Watch the latest business video at video.foxbusiness.com
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External Links:
- CrowdCast
- CFO Prediction Market
- Matt Fogarty’s twitter – [Midas Oracle's twitter]
Previously:
- CrowdCast = Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts
- CrowdCast = market mechanism = binary spreads with [...]
Implementing a prediction market within a company means changing the way information flows by widening the people in the know and accepting to be occasionally second-guessed by the market.
“Some corporate cultures aren’t ready to accept that yet.”
Crowdsourcing the US government
Analysis of the US President’s SAVE Award.
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