Monthly Archives: April 2010

How to publish on Midas Oracle

A short note: – Once you have written your draft, e-mail me so I can publish it and optimize it for Google. – Otherwise, the post stays in the “pending” area —which I don’t check that often.

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NewsFutures’s post mortem on the French elections

PrediPol post-mortem analysis.

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Odds on hung parliament in UK shorten after TV debate

So what effect did the UK‘s first ever televised prime ministerial debate featuring Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg have on the political betting market? Before the debate, the betting market on Betfair regarding who if anybody would secure … Continue reading

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics, Predictions - Forecasts | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

CrowdCast @ Under the Radar 2010

Download this post to watch the video if your feed reader does not show it to you.

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Consulting, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Nate Silver rates New York City’s neighborhoods… and Jason Ruspini objects.

Nate Silver rates New York City’s neighborhoods. Jason Ruspini: The piece is problematic insofar as it underweights proximity to areas where people work, which results in high ratings for distant neighborhoods and low ratings for central ones, on top of … Continue reading

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CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton on the Trend Exchange and the Cantor Exchange’s movie box-office prediction markets

CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton on the movie box-office futures: Via Max Keiser… who has this to say: I’m glad Chilton brought this up. When I was CEO of HSX – I shared a board seat with members who were also … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Market Proposals), Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Financial Markets, Hedging & Insurance, Market Genesis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Why the CFTC won’t approve the Cantor Exchange and the Trend Exchange’s prediction markets on movie box office

Product approval (see below) is a different question from exchange approval (blogged previously by Mike Giberson). Bloomberg: CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton called it a “popcorn prediction market,” [...] Hollywood studios that participate by hedging their films’ prospects will doom ticket … Continue reading

Posted in Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Financial Markets, Hedging & Insurance, Market Genesis, Regulations | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments

Kaggle allows organizations to post their data and have it scrutinized by the world’s best statisticians.

http://kaggle.com/

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CFTC approves box-office futures exchange —but might not approve its markets.

Today, the CFTC approved Media Derivatives Inc.’s request to create a futures exchange based on box office receipts.  The exchange “is primarily focused on the development of a variety of products to benefit the entertainment industry with one if its initially … Continue reading

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Financial Markets, Regulations | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Movie business person will confess to Max Keiser that he/she traded on insider information.

Stay tuned.

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