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Recent Posts
- Inside Apple — [VIDEO]
- Mitt Romney’s taxes — [LINKS]
- A critique of Apple’s multimedia iBooks. — [LINK]
- Does Apple lack “generosity”? — [LINKS]
- Apple Education Push — [LINKS]
- Water Crystals — [DOCUMENT]
- Apple’s e-book software will allow publishers to make textbooks more interactive. — [LINKS + VIDEO]
- Alain Soral is France’s most dangerous intellectual… (dangerous for the French plutocrats, that is). — [VIDEO]
- Computers thru time — [CHART]
- NASA has finally understood the theorical basis of LENR (low-energy nuclear reactions). — [VIDEO]
- Why Samsung is no Apple — [VIDEO]
- Mitt Romney @ Bain Capital — [VIDEO]
- Central banks should set up prediction markets. — [LINK]
- Max Keiser on NADEX — [VIDEO]
- New Hampshire prediction markets screwed up political forecasting in 2008. Will they be right this time? — [CHARTS]
- The real reasons why prediction markets are accurate. — [LINK]
- Much better than a bike… and more affordable than a SegWay… –> The Me-Mover — [VIDEO]
- InTrade is not predictive, says notable financial journalist. — [SCREENSHOT]
- Drudge links directly to InTrade prediction markets, bypassing journalos. — [SCREENSHOT]
- BetFair’s glitch ruins a set of £23m prediction markets. — [LINKS]
Monthly Archives: April 2010
How to publish on Midas Oracle
A short note: – Once you have written your draft, e-mail me so I can publish it and optimize it for Google. – Otherwise, the post stays in the “pending” area —which I don’t check that often.
NewsFutures’s post mortem on the French elections
PrediPol post-mortem analysis.
Odds on hung parliament in UK shorten after TV debate
So what effect did the UK‘s first ever televised prime ministerial debate featuring Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg have on the political betting market? Before the debate, the betting market on Betfair regarding who if anybody would secure … Continue reading
Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics, Predictions - Forecasts
Tagged BetFair, betting markets, conservatives, David Cameron and Nick Clegg, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Gordon Brown, Great Britain, Labour, Lib Dems, Liberal Democrats, Politics, prediction markets, Tories, UK politics, UK's 2010 General Election, United Kingdom
3 Comments
Nate Silver rates New York City’s neighborhoods… and Jason Ruspini objects.
Nate Silver rates New York City’s neighborhoods. Jason Ruspini: The piece is problematic insofar as it underweights proximity to areas where people work, which results in high ratings for distant neighborhoods and low ratings for central ones, on top of … Continue reading
Posted in Analysis (Data), News
Tagged Nate Silver, New York, New York City, New York City's neighborhoods, New York Magazine
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Why the CFTC won’t approve the Cantor Exchange and the Trend Exchange’s prediction markets on movie box office
Product approval (see below) is a different question from exchange approval (blogged previously by Mike Giberson). Bloomberg: CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton called it a “popcorn prediction market,†[...] Hollywood studios that participate by hedging their films’ prospects will doom ticket … Continue reading
Posted in Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Financial Markets, Hedging & Insurance, Market Genesis, Regulations
Tagged betting markets, Cantor Exchange, Cantor Fitzgerald, CFTC, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, derivatives, event derivative markets, event derivatives, futures, Hollywood Stock Exchange, HSX, MDEX, Media Derivatives, Media Derivatives Exchange, movie box office, movie business, movie futures, movies, prediction markets, Trend Exchange
6 Comments
Kaggle allows organizations to post their data and have it scrutinized by the world’s best statisticians.
http://kaggle.com/
Posted in Forecasting (Science & Practice)
Tagged forecasting, forecasting models, Kaggle, models, statistics
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CFTC approves box-office futures exchange —but might not approve its markets.
Today, the CFTC approved Media Derivatives Inc.’s request to create a futures exchange based on box office receipts.  The exchange “is primarily focused on the development of a variety of products to benefit the entertainment industry with one if its initially … Continue reading
Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Financial Markets, Regulations
Tagged betting markets, Cantor Exchange, Cantor Fitzgerald, CFTC, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, derivatives, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Hollywood Stock Exchange, HSX, MDEX, movie box office, movie business, movies, prediction markets, Trend Exchange
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