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- Inside Apple — [VIDEO]
- Mitt Romney’s taxes — [LINKS]
- A critique of Apple’s multimedia iBooks. — [LINK]
- Does Apple lack “generosity”? — [LINKS]
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- Water Crystals — [DOCUMENT]
- Apple’s e-book software will allow publishers to make textbooks more interactive. — [LINKS + VIDEO]
- Alain Soral is France’s most dangerous intellectual… (dangerous for the French plutocrats, that is). — [VIDEO]
- Computers thru time — [CHART]
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- Why Samsung is no Apple — [VIDEO]
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- Central banks should set up prediction markets. — [LINK]
- Max Keiser on NADEX — [VIDEO]
- New Hampshire prediction markets screwed up political forecasting in 2008. Will they be right this time? — [CHARTS]
- The real reasons why prediction markets are accurate. — [LINK]
- Much better than a bike… and more affordable than a SegWay… –> The Me-Mover — [VIDEO]
- InTrade is not predictive, says notable financial journalist. — [SCREENSHOT]
- Drudge links directly to InTrade prediction markets, bypassing journalos. — [SCREENSHOT]
- BetFair’s glitch ruins a set of £23m prediction markets. — [LINKS]
Monthly Archives: February 2009
Oscars 2009: Andrew Gelman weighs in.
Predictions that are too good to be true? – Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
Tim Harford is a paperback writer.
US edition (paperback): Tim Harford, The Logic Of Life – UK edition (paperback): Tim Harford, The Logic Of Life -
Posted in Economics, Resources - References
Tagged Amazon, books, Economics, economists, paperback, The Logic Of Life, Tim Harford
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“Guessing all the frontrunners correctly is something to brag ONLY if the reported confidences are high enough.”
“If they are not and you get them all correctly, then the markets have biases and are NOT accurate.”
A portfolio instead of a diploma
Excellent idea. It inaugurates my new “Education” category and tag.
“Entrepreneur” is a French word, Nate.
Nate Kontny of Inkling Markets – @ University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, U.S.A. – 2009-02-25
Outstanding post by Eliezer Yudkowsky
Check it out. How to prepare for the worst… now.
Boom and Bust of Prediction Markets
The boom of public and private prediction markets started after the 2004 US elections. InTrade claimed to have nailed “all 50 states”. InTrade’s performance in the 2008 US elections was less stellar, and in line with polls. Hence, the bust … Continue reading
Posted in Analysis (Data), Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets
Tagged boom and bust, HubDub, InTrade, prediction markets
15 Comments
A Mystery Wrapped In A Riddle Inside An Enigma
How come HubDub managed to get it right, when all the major prediction exchanges (BetFair, HSX, InTrade, NewsFutures, and even Nate Silver) all saw Mickey Rourke? – 81st Academy Awards: Who will win the Oscar for Best Actor?
I just approved some new comments this morning. Check them out.
- Panos, here, responding to Daniel. – Panos, here, responding to Jenni. – The TriatheMatician, here, analyzing the stats. – - Once your first comment is approved on Midas Oracle, all your further comments are published automatically without any need … Continue reading →