Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Monthly Archives: December, 2008

Happy New Year… from Google

Google has updated its PageRank system.
Check your website(s).
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The Open Institute Of Prediction Markets

To get informed about our attempt at creating, in 2009, “The Open Institute Of Prediction Markets“, you should:
- be a member of the LinkedIn group on Prediction Markets (we are 192 197, whereas John M’s group is only 77) —I will post info there;
- be a registered member of Midas Oracle (we are 116) —I will [...]

Prediction markets react to polls.

Learning in Investment Decisions: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Polls – (PDF file) – David S. Lee and Enrico Moretti – 2008-12-XX
In this paper, we explore how polls and prediction markets interact in the context of the 2008 U.S. Presidential election. We begin by presenting some evidence on the relative predictive power of polls and [...]

Mario Galea and the Malta Lotteries And Gaming Authority: the continuing corruption of this puppet online gambling licensing body

This is a follow up to the previous Malta LGA article I wrote for Midas Oracle earlier this year, and a re-working and extension of the Mario Galea and the LGA article on my own site a few weeks ago.
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Since my previous articles, I should point out that there have been some changes pertinent to [...]

Improving startup virality using prediction markets to estimate failure probability?

Improving startup virality using prediction markets to estimate failure probability?

Collective Intelligence – Prediction Markets – NewsFutures

I am republishing those YouTube videos, because now I know how to make them appear in the feed readers (e.g., Google Reader). So I hope that, this time, my 1,000+ feed subscribers will watch those videos.
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Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures
YouTube videos:
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1/2
PART 1: EVIDENCE OF PREDICTION MARKET ACCURACY

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2/2
PART 2: WHY PREDICTION MARKETS ARE ACCURATE

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Q&A1
Q&A 1: Aren’t political [...]

WordPress 2.7, the embedded YouTube videos, and the feed readers

This is an update. The WordPress guy came back to me with answers. It is a dual problem: a HTML validity issue and an invalid tag issue in TinyMCE.

One way to solve the problem would be to use the “Smart YouTube” plugin. I won’t.
If I embed the YouTube video in the “HTML” area, and don’t [...]

Google FriendSense inside each prediction market webpage?

Would enterprise prediction markets have predicted the complete collapse of the market for corporate jets?

Where do you get most of your national and international news?

“From the Internet” … is in red:

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