Daily Archives: July 1, 2008

Third Workshop on Prediction Markets, July 9 in Chicago

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The Third:

July 9th, 2008

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1:25pm Opening Remarks

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1:30 – 2:20pm: Session 1: Practical Applications and Experiences

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Speaker: Emile Servan-Schreiber (1:30-1:45pm)

  • Keys to successful implementation of an internal corporate prediction market (Emile Servan-Schreiber)

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Speaker: Todd Henderson (1:45-2:05pm)

  • Prediction Markets for Corporate Governance (Michael Abramowicz and Todd Henderson)
  • Predicting Crime (Todd Henderson, Justin Wolfers, and Eric Zitzewitz)

Discussion (2:05pm – 2:15pm)
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2:20pm-3:10pm Session 2: Security Design and Theory

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Speaker: Hajime Mizuyama (2:15 pm &#8212- 2:30pm)

  • Intra-Firm Prediction Market System Using VIPS for Demand Forecasting (Hajime Mizuyama)

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Speaker: Stefan Stathel (2:30 pm &#8211-2:45pm)

  • Information Efficiency and Liquidity in Information Markets: A market-maker based approach (Stefan Stathel, Clemens van Dinther, and Stefan Luckner)

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Speaker: Eiichero Kazumori (2:45 pm &#8212- 3:00pm)

  • A Strategic Theory of Markets (Eiichiro Kazumori)

Discussion (3pm-3:10pm)
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3:10pm-3:30pm: Break

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3:30-4:25pm: Session 3: Event Detection

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Speaker: Todd Kuethe (3:30 – 3:45pm)

  • Identifying &#8220-Tipping Points&#8221- in US Presidential Campaigns: Evidence from Prediction Market Prices 1992-2004 (Todd H. Kuethe, David Ubilava, Benoit Delbecq, and Kenneth A. Foster)

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Speaker: George Tziralis (3:45pm – 4:00pm)

  • Detecting Important Events using Prediction Markets, Text Mining, and Volatility Modeling (George Tziralis and Panos Ipeirotis)

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Speaker: Abe Othman (4:00pm-4:15pm)

  • Time Inconsistency and Uncertainty Aversion in Information Markets (Ivan Corwin and Abe Othman)

Discussion (4:15pm-4:25pm)

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Session 4: Comparison to Alternatives (4:25-4:55pm)

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Speaker: Andreas Graefe (4:25-4:45pm)

  • Can you beat the market? Accuracy of Individual and Group Post-Prediction Market Judgments (Andreas Graefe and J. Scott Armstrong)
  • Group Decision Making – Face-to-face Meetings, Nominal Groups, Delphi, and Prediction Markets Compared (Andreas Graefe and J. Scott Armstrong)

Discussion: 4:45-4:55pm

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Wrap-up: 4:55-5pm

Previous blog posts by Chris “GadFly” Masse:

  • PROF TOM W. BELL, PLEASE, DO SKIP THE PAGAN CELEBRATIONS, AND, PLEASE, DO RETURN TO YOUR DESK TO FINISH THE DRAFT OF YOUR COMMENT TO THE CFTC. THANKS FOR YOUR PRAGMATIC (NOT ‘ETHEREAL’) CONTRIBUTION TO “THE FUTURE OF HUMANITY”. (There is a hidden slam to Robin Hanson in this title. I wonder whether people will get the joke.)
  • The CFTC is going to close the comments in 3 days. We have 3 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
  • TOM W. BELL: “Thanks, Chris. Thanks, too, for being such an effective gadfly. I might well have blown off the whole exercise if you had not kept blogging about how you were awaiting my comment!”
  • What to think of HedgeStreet’s comment to the CFTC
  • The freshest comments sent to the CFTC
  • “To someone like me who trades professionally and also ran for Congress a few years back, InTrade is a marriage made in heaven.”
  • HOW TO DESTROY INTRADE, TRADESPORTS AND BETFAIR: a betting application for FaceBook

The CFTC is going to close the comments in 6 days. We have 6 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowi

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THE MIDAS ORACLE TAKES:

– CALL TO ACTION: Let&#8217-s fight so that the CFTC allows the FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges to deal with &#8220-event markets&#8221-.

– In the for-profit vs not-for-profit debate, our prediction market luminaries, doctored by Bob, are on the wrong side of the issue.

– The definitive proof that FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (like BetFair and InTrade) are the best organizers of socially valuable prediction markets (like those on global warming and climate change).

– COMMENTS TO THE CFTC: What to expect from Tom W. Bell and Jason Ruspini

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BACKGROUND INFO:

– CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts&#8230- notably how they define &#8220-event markets&#8221-, how they are going to extend their &#8220-exemption&#8221- to other IEM-like prediction exchanges, and how they framed their questions to the public. Here are the comments sent to the CFTC.

– The Arnold &amp- Porter lawyer&#8217-s take. &#8212- (PDF file)

– The Schulte, Roth &amp- Zabel lawyers&#8217- take. &#8212- (PDF file)

– The Sullivan &amp- Cromwell lawyers&#8217- take. &#8212- (PDF file)

– What Vernon Smith told the CFTC. &#8212- (PDF file)

– This week, 4 prediction market organizations and VIPs will submit their comment to the CFTC.

– Michael Giberson&#8217-s economic take.

– Chris Hibbert&#8217-s libertarian take.

– Tom W. Bell&#8217-s libertarian take.

– Jed Christiansen&#8217-s pragmatic take. &#8212- Final draft – (PDF file)

– A young economist rebuts the American Enterprise Institute. &#8212- (MO mirror)

– The American Enterprise Institute’s proposals to legalize the real-money prediction markets in the United States of America

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APPENDIX:

Paul Wolfowitz&#8217-s profile at the American Enterprise Institute

– How the neo-cons drove the United States of America into the unecessary Iraq war

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Nigel, your very nice poll widget cant be seen within my feed reader (Google Reader). Put it in the trash can, will you.

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • The FaceBook profiles of the 2 most important men of the field of prediction markets
  • THE HUMAN GADFLY WHOSE OBJECTIONS ROBIN HANSON IS DUCKING…???…
  • Google now considers Midas Oracle as a major blog.
  • Horizon 2015: A long-term strategic perspective for the real-money prediction markets
  • Join our group at LinkedIn to have your “Prediction Markets” badge on your profile. It’s ‘chic’. (“Groups” info should be set as “visible”, in your profile options.) We are 63 this early Saturday morning —keeps growing.
  • If you have been using PayPal to fund your InTrade, TradeSports or BetFair account, please, check that horror story.
  • 48 hours after the launch of the “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn, we have already 52 members —both prediction market luminaries and simple people (trading the event derivatives or collecting the market-generated probabilities).

Commenting on Midas Oracle

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As you know, some people commenting here told me they went into trouble, even when they were logged in. I found out why. The anti-spam plugin &#8220-WP Spam Free&#8221- does not exempt registered blog users from its anti-spam checking. It only exempts the administrator (me). That&#8217-s absurd. (See the WP forum.) The registered users of Midas Oracle should be trusted a priori.

I didn&#8217-t know that. When some commenters complained to me, I thought they were completely drunk. Sorry for that, folks.

Which is why the plugin &#8220-WP Spam Free&#8221- is out (until its author comes back to his sense), and &#8220-Bad Behavior&#8221- is in.

Commenters, let me know whether the problems you got while trying to comment on Midas Oracle have disappeared. Thanks. I promise I&#8217-ll trust you, this time. :-D

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Our previous post on the topic of registration (which is recommended).

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UPDATE: Bad Behavior proved to be good for my blog users, but lately, I endured an attack of spam comments (60 last night). So, I did disable Bad Behavior and re-enable WP Spam Free for a while&#8230- I&#8217-ll see what to do next&#8230- If you encounter problems, e-mail me. I think you should accept cookies and have JavaScript enabled in your browser&#8230-

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The economist Robin Hanson predicts that some of our computronium-based progeny may colonize the cosmos in a peaceful, cooperative manner, like nice liberal Democrats.

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John Horgan in the WSJ

&#8230-&#8220-like nice liberal Democrats&#8221-&#8230- ha! ha! ha! :-D &#8212- &#8230- like Mike Linksvayer, then&#8230- (depending on your meaning of &#8220-liberal&#8221-)&#8230- :-D

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Previous blog posts by Chris “GadFly” Masse:

  • PROF TOM W. BELL, PLEASE, DO SKIP THE PAGAN CELEBRATIONS, AND, PLEASE, DO RETURN TO YOUR DESK TO FINISH THE DRAFT OF YOUR COMMENT TO THE CFTC. THANKS FOR YOUR PRAGMATIC (NOT ‘ETHEREAL’) CONTRIBUTION TO “THE FUTURE OF HUMANITY”. (There is a hidden slam to Robin Hanson in this title. I wonder whether people will get the joke.)
  • The CFTC is going to close the comments in 3 days. We have 3 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
  • TOM W. BELL: “Thanks, Chris. Thanks, too, for being such an effective gadfly. I might well have blown off the whole exercise if you had not kept blogging about how you were awaiting my comment!”
  • What to think of HedgeStreet’s comment to the CFTC
  • The freshest comments sent to the CFTC
  • “To someone like me who trades professionally and also ran for Congress a few years back, InTrade is a marriage made in heaven.”
  • HOW TO DESTROY INTRADE, TRADESPORTS AND BETFAIR: a betting application for FaceBook

Reality-Mined Prediction Markets

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Meet professor Thomas W. Malone (on the right), from the MIT’s Center for Collective Intelligence.
  • Tom W. Bell rebuts the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
  • The upcoming CFTC ruling may come as thunder and lightning —or may not. That is the question. Will they exempt or will they regulate?
  • PROF TOM W. BELL, PLEASE, DO SKIP THE PAGAN CELEBRATIONS, AND, PLEASE, DO RETURN TO YOUR DESK TO FINISH THE DRAFT OF YOUR COMMENT TO THE CFTC. THANKS FOR YOUR PRAGMATIC (NOT ‘ETHEREAL’) CONTRIBUTION TO “THE FUTURE OF HUMANITY”. (There is a hidden slam to Robin Hanson in this title. I wonder whether people will get the joke.)
  • The CFTC is going to close the comments in 3 days. We have 3 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
  • TOM W. BELL: “Thanks, Chris. Thanks, too, for being such an effective gadfly. I might well have blown off the whole exercise if you had not kept blogging about how you were awaiting my comment!”
  • What to think of HedgeStreet’s comment to the CFTC