Daily Archives: June 19, 2008

VIDEO: Max Keisers attempt at predicting the future -subjectively

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Overall, the TV show is based on a good concept (trying to predict future headlines), and I&#8217-m sure it will be a success in the end.

However, one big mistake Max is doing is to have female journalists. Sorry to say that, but if you are in the business of selling subjective predictions, you need to have credible predictors, with loud voice, charisma, and definitive attitude. Most women in journalism don&#8217-t display those qualities.

Max, fire the journalists and put real pundits on your TV show.

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Video

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • The letter David Pennock will never send out —well, we hope.
  • Monitor the web traffic of TradeSports.com, InTrade.com, BetFair.com, Betdaq.com, NewsFutures.com, HubDub.com, etc. —thanks to Google Trends.
  • Here’s the way to promote innovation for entry-order and analysis software packages —separate the 2 functions.
  • Ugly things happened before BetFair was invented
  • Tiny API delay for non-UK customers of BetFair —since all international BetFair bettors, traders and gamblers are now served from Malta, not from London.
  • CLOCK IS RUNNING FAST: 17 days to go, if we want to counter AEI’s push for not-for-profit prediction exchanges.
  • In the for-profit vs not-for-profit debate, our prediction market luminaries, doctored by Bob, are on the wrong side of the issue.

Will the CFTC allow FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges to deal with event markets?

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The feedback I have received about my speculative post is that I put too much weight into the CFTC requesting that the prediction exchanges organizing &#8220-event markets&#8221- (event derivative markets that can&#8217-t be used for hedging risks) be not for profit &#8212-as the Iowa Electronic Markets is.

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Just below, in bold, are the phrase and the word I&#8217-m told I have mis-read.

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CFTC – (PDF file):

CFTC&#8217-s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts

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D. Legal Implementation

16. Is it appropriate for the Commission to direct certain or all event contracts onto markets that are regulated differently from and perhaps less stringently than DCMs? For example, it may be warranted or necessary to treat event markets that aggregate information solely for academic or research purposes, event markets set-up for internal corporate purposes, or event markets that offer exceedingly low notional value contracts to traders differently than markets that possess the attributes of traditional DCMs.

19. What are the benefits and drawbacks of permitting certain event markets to operate pursuant to Commission established conditions that are similar to the conditions under which the IEM operates?

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UPDATE: CALL TO ACTION: Let&#8217-s fight so that the CFTC allows the FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges to deal with &#8220-event markets&#8221-.

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UPDATE: NOT-FOR-PROFIT&#8230- or&#8230- FOR-PROFIT&#8230- That is the question.

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UPDATE: In the for-profit vs not-for-profit debate, our prediction market luminaries, doctored by Bob, are on the wrong side of the issue.

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OPEN-SOURCE PREDICTION EXCHANGE: How Smarkets is going to eat BetFairs lunch -well, they hope.

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TechCrunch UK

There’s an interesting twist – they plan to offer an open API for people to develop their own betting applications and use the Smarkets infrastructure. Their idea is this: users don’t need knowledge of odds or experience. It’s more about speed and entertainment than sports.

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Smart idea, but how will this crack the chicken-and-egg problem that every prediction exchange (betting exchange) has at inception? How will this help fighting BetFair&#8217-s network effect? What makes you think that BetFair and TradeSports don&#8217-t offer &#8220-speed and entertainment&#8221-? Do people really want to trade sports or &#8220-develop their own betting applications&#8221-? What would prevent BetFair and TradeSports to do the same?

Anyway, best wishes to UK-based Yankees Jason Trost and Hunter Morris. :-D

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Smarkets

Smarkets – Their web framework. – PDF file

Smarkets – Open-source software they use.

Smarkets – Press release

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CraigList [INTERSECTION SYMBOL HERE] Prediction Markets

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Any heavy user of CraigList on Midas Oracle? Any idea on how to use CraigList to fortify the prediction market community?

E-mail me, or put a comment below. I&#8217-m curious&#8230-

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Got the idea after reading Jeremy Zawodny&#8230-

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • The CFTC is going to close the comments in 15 days. We have 15 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges, and counter the evil petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
  • The CFTC is going to close the comments in 16 days. We have 16 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges, and counter the evil petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
  • Brand-new scientific report certifies that starting off the Large Hadron Collider is NOT going to destroy the Earth. Glad to hear that. It means that any bets entertained on the LHC issue will be able to be resolved and winnings to be collected in the end.
  • Small Business = GOOD — Big Business = BAD
  • The letter David Pennock will never send out —well, we hope.
  • Monitor the web traffic of TradeSports.com, InTrade.com, BetFair.com, Betdaq.com, NewsFutures.com, HubDub.com, etc. —thanks to Google Trends.
  • Here’s the way to promote innovation for entry-order and analysis software packages —separate the 2 functions.