Monthly Archives: January 2008

Justin Wolfers on Rudy Giuliani = not convincing… yet

Justin Wolfers investigated the Rudy Giuliani free-fall thru the prism of the InTrade prediction markets in the Wall Street Journal (PDF file). All told, prediction market data tend to confirm that Mr. Giuliani’s recent decline is due to a poor … Continue reading

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The Florida primaries thru the prism of the InTrade prediction markets

Florida — The Democrats The Hillary Clinton event derivative was expired to 100. [No delegates were collected, though.] [I was not able to get the John Edwards chart.] — The Republicans The John McCain event derivative was expired to 100. … Continue reading

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HubDub = Prediction Market Charts legended with News Markers

To get any legended chart, click on the “history” link, just below the small chart. — What will be the principal reason given for the British Airways crash at Heathrow? 

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BetFair Digital Odds = BetFair Probabilities

Odds that Hillary Clinton gets the 2008 Democratic nomination = 1.56 (digital odds taken at 9:15 AM EST) To get the implied probability expressed in percentage: Take the number “1″; Divided it by the digital odds (here “1.56″); Then multiply … Continue reading

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Think Tanks = $$$ + Research + Spin

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Crisis Management Flowchart Tool

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Xpree = Innovations + Prediction Markets

Xpree launches Open Innovation Markets, a simplified betting interface and also a new website. Open Innovation Markets combines crowd based innovation, voting and prediction markets. The idea is to brainstorm as a community, vote on the ideas to rank them, … Continue reading

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News Aggregation + Prediction Markets

On Wednesday, January 30, 2008, at 9:00 AM PST (12:00 PM EST; 5:00 PM GMT; 6:00 PM CET), dollar-thirsty Nigel Eccles (pictured above) will be introducing HubDub at DEMO 2008 (one of the best IT conferences, along with eTech, LeWeb, … Continue reading

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Our good doctor EJSS laughs at the “Web 2.0″ concept on TechCrunch, but touts it as an essential part of the NewsFutures offerings on his website.

Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures: [...] Also, the mere idea of a Web 2.0 makeover of prediction markets is laughable. To paraphrase a good ol’ song from the 90’s, prediction markets were web 2.0 before web 2.0 was cool. Yeah, but … Continue reading

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NewsFutures do *NOT* favor event derivative management by traders.

Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures: January 29th, 2008 at 7:25 am Another important difference with NewsFutures (where people have been “trading news” in 2000) is that hubdub doesn’t give away any prizes to performers. That, perhaps, is a direct consequence of … Continue reading

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