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Recent Posts
- Saint-Tropez — [VIDEO]
- HTLM 5 & Content — [VIDEO]
- Spies — [VIDEO]
- Apple does differently. — [VIDEO]
- Steve Wozniak on his achievements at Apple (and on Steve Jobs) — [VIDEO]
- Valve = the anti Apple — [INTERNAL DOCUMENT]
- Why Starbucks mistreats its customers — [VIDEO]
- The rise of the 1% is good for the economy. — [VIDEO]
- Numenta’s Grok prediction engine — [LINK]
- Pirated movies are more usable. — [INFOGRAPHIC]
- FaceBook’s Roadshow — [VIDEO]
- Congrats to François Hollande — [VIDEO]
- Steve Jobs, the inventor — [VIDEO]
- Proposal for a better iPad keyboard — [VIDEO]
- Bain Capital’s Edward Conard on investing and risk taking — [LINK + VIDEO]
- Peter Thiel on the ‘oral test’ in the hiring process — [VIDEO]
- David Pennock and Duncan Watts are hired by MicroSoft’s NYC Lab. — [LINK]
- Money, Power & Wall Street — [VIDEO]
- Apple’s taxes — [LINKS + VIDEO]
- Kansas City — [VIDEO]
Monthly Archives: January 2008
Justin Wolfers on Rudy Giuliani = not convincing… yet
Justin Wolfers investigated the Rudy Giuliani free-fall thru the prism of the InTrade prediction markets in the Wall Street Journal (PDF file). All told, prediction market data tend to confirm that Mr. Giuliani’s recent decline is due to a poor … Continue reading
The Florida primaries thru the prism of the InTrade prediction markets
Florida — The Democrats The Hillary Clinton event derivative was expired to 100. [No delegates were collected, though.] [I was not able to get the John Edwards chart.] — The Republicans The John McCain event derivative was expired to 100. … Continue reading
HubDub = Prediction Market Charts legended with News Markers
To get any legended chart, click on the “history” link, just below the small chart. — What will be the principal reason given for the British Airways crash at Heathrow?Â
Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Software
Tagged British Airways, charts, HubDub, News, prediction markets
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BetFair Digital Odds = BetFair Probabilities
Odds that Hillary Clinton gets the 2008 Democratic nomination = 1.56 (digital odds taken at 9:15 AM EST) To get the implied probability expressed in percentage: Take the number “1″; Divided it by the digital odds (here “1.56″); Then multiply … Continue reading
Xpree = Innovations + Prediction Markets
Xpree launches Open Innovation Markets, a simplified betting interface and also a new website. Open Innovation Markets combines crowd based innovation, voting and prediction markets. The idea is to brainstorm as a community, vote on the ideas to rank them, … Continue reading
Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Consulting, Exchange & Market Designs, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Inventions & Innovations, Mechanism Designs, Software
Tagged event derivative markets, event derivatives, feedback, innovations, Player, prediction markets, USD, Xpree
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Our good doctor EJSS laughs at the “Web 2.0″ concept on TechCrunch, but touts it as an essential part of the NewsFutures offerings on his website.
Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures: [...] Also, the mere idea of a Web 2.0 makeover of prediction markets is laughable. To paraphrase a good ol’ song from the 90’s, prediction markets were web 2.0 before web 2.0 was cool. Yeah, but … Continue reading