Monthly Archives: January 2008

Pervez Musharraf prediction markets –Eric Zitzewitz Edition

Eric Zitzewitz’s post, circa November 2007.

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The Over-Round Explained

… by our good friend Niall O’Connor. (So, beware. )

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WHY THE PREDICTION MARKETS WILL LIKELY F**K UP SUPER TUESDAY 2008.

Via Wall Street investor and blogger Barry Ritholtz, Wall Street Journal’ s June Kronholz: In Campaign 2008, Pollsters Are Biggest Losers • The Issue – Opinion-poll results were wide of the mark in early-voting states and will likely misjudge the … Continue reading

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Still unconvinced by prediction market journalist Justin Wolfers

The Justin Wolfers series in the Wall Street Journal is plagued with rotten links to the WSJ’s bot-driven, play-money prediction sub-exchange (which is secretly programed to reflect InTrade’s real-money prices). — The latest installment (which does not featured a single … Continue reading

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Oprah Winfrey

by Daniel Edwards

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RIGHT-CLICK THIS IMAGE, AND FILL IN THIS SURVEY, PLEASE.

It’s for Rositsa Popcheva’s thesis, “Information Markets and Knowledge Management: An Empirical Study of the Advantages and Limitations in Organizational Settings.” —

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Papers on Prediction Markets

Preparing a Negotiated R&D Portfolio with a Prediction Market – by Cedric Gaspoz and Yves Pigneur http://www.hec.unil.ch/cgaspoz/files/pub/Gaspoz08a_Preparing_a_Negotiated_R_D_Portfolio_with_a_Prediction_Market.pdf Multi-Criteria Decision-Making versus Prediction Markets – by Cedric Gaspoz and Yves Pigneur http://www.hec.unil.ch/cgaspoz/files/pub/Gaspoz07c_Technology_Foresight_for_IT_Investment.pdf

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The Journal of Prediction Markets

The Journal of Prediction Markets – Volume 1, Number 3, December 2007 Adapting Least-Square Support Vector Regression Models to Forecast the Outcome of Horseraces Conditional Prediction Markets as Corporate Decision Support Systems – An Experimental Comparison with Group Deliberations Does … Continue reading

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The 45-degree Line

Via Steve Roman, Michael Abramowicz.

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Implied Probability of an Outcome –BetFair Edition

“Does prediction market guru [= Chris Masse] understand probabilities?“, asks our good friend Niall O’Connor. — — Let’s ask economics PhD Michael Giberson: Yes, I think you are right. I just looked at your exchange with Niall and Niall’s post, … Continue reading

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