Justin Wolfers investigated the Rudy Giuliani free-fall thru the prism of the InTrade prediction markets in the Wall Street Journal (PDF file).
All told, prediction market data tend to confirm that Mr. Giuliani’-s recent decline is due to a poor campaign, rather than a poor strategy.
I have just read the 3-page New York Times story on Rudy Giuliani’-s “-dizzying free-fall”- (who has not yet dropped out and endorsed John McCain, as I write this). And, as I understand the two NYT writers, they attribute his failure to both a strategic mistake and a poor campaign.
- “-many advisers and political observers point to the hubris and strategic miscalculations that plagued his campaign.”- …- “-a fateful decision”- …- “-skipping the first four or five caucuses and primaries”- …-
- “-he in fact competed hard in New Hampshire, to remarkably poor effect.“-
As of today, I am not yet convinced that Justin Wolfers saw something in the prediction markets that the political analysts didn’-t see in the polls and in the votes. Thus, I will find other Giuliani reports. I’-ll see. What is needed is an independent judgment on this.
Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:
- Gary Flake to David Pennock: Come on board… or die.
- Technology Futurism
- Trade on BetFair-TradeFair as you would trade on TradeSports-InTrade, thanks to order-entry software BinarySoft.
- Pervez Musharraf prediction markets –Eric Zitzewitz Edition
- The Over-Round Explained
- WHY THE PREDICTION MARKETS WILL LIKELY F**K UP SUPER TUESDAY 2008.
- Still unconvinced by prediction market journalist Justin Wolfers