Justin Wolfers on Rudy Giuliani = not convincing… yet

Justin Wolfers investigated the Rudy Giuliani free-fall thru the prism of the InTrade prediction markets in the Wall Street Journal (PDF file).

All told, prediction market data tend to confirm that Mr. Giuliani&#8217-s recent decline is due to a poor campaign, rather than a poor strategy.

I have just read the 3-page New York Times story on Rudy Giuliani&#8217-s &#8220-dizzying free-fall&#8221- (who has not yet dropped out and endorsed John McCain, as I write this). And, as I understand the two NYT writers, they attribute his failure to both a strategic mistake and a poor campaign.

  1. &#8220-many advisers and political observers point to the hubris and strategic miscalculations that plagued his campaign.&#8221- &#8230- &#8220-a fateful decision&#8221- &#8230- &#8220-skipping the first four or five caucuses and primaries&#8221- &#8230-
  2. &#8220-he in fact competed hard in New Hampshire, to remarkably poor effect.&#8220-

As of today, I am not yet convinced that Justin Wolfers saw something in the prediction markets that the political analysts didn&#8217-t see in the polls and in the votes. Thus, I will find other Giuliani reports. I&#8217-ll see. What is needed is an independent judgment on this.

Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:

  • Gary Flake to David Pennock: Come on board… or die.
  • Technology Futurism
  • Trade on BetFair-TradeFair as you would trade on TradeSports-InTrade, thanks to order-entry software BinarySoft.
  • Pervez Musharraf prediction markets –Eric Zitzewitz Edition
  • The Over-Round Explained
  • Still unconvinced by prediction market journalist Justin Wolfers

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *