Monthly Archives: October 2006

Does TradeSports-InTrade “duplicate” the Iowa Electronic Markets’s political contracts?

The Iowa Electronic Market: Lessons Learned and Answers Yearned – (PDF) – by Joyce E. Berg and Thomas A. Rietz – 2005-01-00 In page 2, the authors treat TradeSports as “an online betting operation that has incorporated IEM-like contracts on … Continue reading

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Google to commoditize prediction market software? (Or Yahoo!. Or MicroSoft.)

That’s Professor Ely Dahan’s educated guess (or suggestion?) at the end of his Google TechTalks presentation (the last 5 minutes). How can we better understand customers? – (Video) – (via George Tziralis) – [STOC] – by Ely Dahan – 2006-07-18 … Continue reading

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It’s close to impossible to compete with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).

The head of the New York Stock Exchange to Maria Bartiromo: Do you consider the Chicago Mercantile Exchange a competitor? Not directly a competitor, because they are in a different mix of products. Over time, they will become more of … Continue reading

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HedgeStreet: If the Dems takes both the US House and the US Senate, stock markets will go South.

From the HedgeStreet e-mail newsletter: The GDP growth slowed to 1.6% in Q3 2006. Home sales are down 20%, median prices declined again. The Fed should have raised rates a year earlier. Once the inflation hydra was out of the … Continue reading

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Chinese Markets

In its October 25, 2006 press release, Cambridge-based consultancy Market Platform Dynamics says it has the “only China-based prediction market capability.” They actually seem to be referring to a survey. Their website gives no evidence of a price mechanism. MPD’s … Continue reading

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MatchBook’s user-created prediction markets – 6 years after Flutter. – Inkling not the only one.

Here’s from MatchBook (a real-money prediction exchange, a.k.a. betting exchange, which has volumes on American Football, betting market expert Niall O’Connor tells me): X Bets X Bets are events that customers request for betting among themselves. They can only be … Continue reading

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Benefits and non-benefits of sports betting markets

Chris Masse wrote this about ways in which sports betting markets could be used to catch fixed matches. He wrote this as a refutation to my comment that I enjoy gambling in semi-skill-based settings (poker, sports betting, election pools, etc.), … Continue reading

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David Pennock: Inkling Markets has a better interface than the Washington Stock Exchange.

Implementing Hanson’s Market Maker – [Robin Hanson's Market Scoring Rules & Automated market maker | How to implement Robin Hanson's the logarithmic market scoring rule market maker] – by David Pennock – 2006-10-30 LMSR is now being used in several … Continue reading

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CFTC prevents financial innovation. Dixit Leo Melamed. Circa 1975.

Pioneerism Needs No Economic Justification. – (via JC Kommer) – [CFTC prevents financial innovation.] – by Leo Melamed – 1975-08-13 The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) came into existence by Congressional Act, in 1974. The debate that preceded this legislation … Continue reading

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