Joe is going off the deep end.
Market noises are now interpreted as the intergalactic battle between the pro-HCR and the anti-HCR, who are both seeking to manipulate the InTrade prediction markets. No evidence whatsoever is displayed. P.S: , who is a good web curator, and a nice chap. Just disagree with him (and I am not picking on Joe Andrew Golberg) that prediction market journalism is easy to do. Good prediction market journalism is very hard to do. Requires scoops and pertinent analysis. Scrapping exchange probabilities and aggregating it with re-written news is not enough.
More info on health care reform on Memeorandum. Previously: Insider trading in the InTrade prediction market on health care reform? Posted in Exchanges Markets | Tagged betting markets, Business Insider, event derivative markets, health care reform, insider trading, InTrade, Joe Weisenthal, journalism, Politics, Prediction Journalism, prediction market journalism, prediction markets, US politics | InTrade CEO John Delaney: …-it is a reasonably active market but atypically a lot of the trade is coming from the DC area when normally we might see trade coming from all the major urban areas.
ADDENDUM: For your information, in Great Britain, sporting insiders (such as athletes or jockeys) who trade on betting exchanges (such as BetFair) are actively monitored.
Posted in All Best Posts Ever | Tagged 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, Forecasting, forecasting models, models, Nate Silver, political forecasting, Politics, Psychology, statistical models, statistics, SXSW 2009, US politics, US presidential elections |