Professor Thomas Rietz (Iowa Electronic Markets) was so wrong on the usefulness of prediction markets about the 2016 Summer Olympics in Chicago.

Chicago Olympic Market Might Have Value, Says Reitz (Chicago Tribune, April 17)
A credible source of information about Chicago&#8217-s chances of hosting the 2016 Olympics would have value, says columnist Bill Barnhart. Local real estate developers, hotel operators, employment agencies, vendors of products and services to major events and others have a direct stake in whether or not an Olympics is staged here. Politicians and civic leaders presumably would want to know whether the city&#8217-s bid has a chance, so that they wouldn&#8217-t throw good money after bad. An auction market centered on whether Chicago will win could provide that information, even if there were no huge payoff for hedgers or speculators, said finance professor THOMAS RIETZ at the University of Iowa, a board member of the popular Iowa Electronic Markets. The Iowa market limits wagers to $500 but has an enviable track record in picking the winners of national elections. &#8220-Our goal is to aggregate information, which is a different goal than being able to hedge the economic risk associated with something like this,&#8221- Rietz said. &#8220-I don&#8217-t think it&#8217-s an outlandish idea.&#8221-

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/yourmoney/chi-0704160447apr17,0,2547860.column?coll=chi-business-hed

Prof, you were 100% wrong.

Prediction markets on which country will host the Olympics have never worked.

BetFair&#8217-s event derivative prices (on the far right of the chart, you can see that the price went down to zero):

chicago-olympics-betfair

InTrade&#8217-s event derivative prices (on the far right of the chart, you can see that the price went down to zero):

chicago-olympics-intrade

– HubDub&#8217-s event derivative prices:

Who will recieve the winning bid to host the 2016 Olympics?

OLYMPIC MEDALS: The Los Angeles Times cites HubDub -but not BetFair, TradeSports, NewsFutures, or YooPick.

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Los Angeles Times

Could it be because the journalist had googled &#8220-Olympics&#8221- for his/her research?

HubDub is the only prediction exchange whose prediction market webpages are indexed well by Google.

SEO is key for marketing and P.R., folks &#8212-you see the evidence under your very nose with HubDub and the Olympics.

Predict Olympic medal counts on YooPick.

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Cross posted from Oddhead Blog.

We&#8217-ve just added a new feature to Yoopick especially for Frenchmen Chris and Emile and citizens of nineteen other countries to place their swagor* on how many medals their country will win.

We&#8217-ve argued that the Yoopick interface is useful for predicting almost any kind of number, and since medal count is indeed a number, we thought we&#8217-d give it a try.

Besides, Lance told us it would be a good idea.

Sign up, play, enjoy, and don’t forget to tell us what you think!

Thanks,
Sharad Goel
David Pennock
Dan Reeves

* Scientific wild-ass guess, on record

Select

Yoopick: Olympic medal count: Select

Make pick

Yoopick: Olympic medal count: France: Make pick

OLYMPICS BETTING: BetFair is fun, while InTrade is boring like hell -and TradeSports, inexistent.

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BetFair&#8217-s prediction markets, on which country will get the most medals &#8212-it&#8217-s China, but the U.S. is not far behind.

InTrade&#8217-s prediction markets, on the boring boycott thing.

TradeSports is AWOL.

A proposal: Will the Olympics get derailed by air pollution?

99 days to go!

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • The CFTC is going to close the comments in 11 days. We have 11 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges, and counter the evil petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
  • The definitive proof that FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (like BetFair and InTrade) are the best organizers of socially valuable prediction markets (like those on global warming and climate change).
  • Fairness Doctrine prediction markets
  • 2 MILLION TRADES LATER: Inkling’s play-money prediction markets are accurate —too.
  • Web Forums on Prediction Markets
  • Jason Ruspini will answer SOME of these CFTC questions. — 12 days left, Jason.
  • QUIZZ OF THE DAY: Which blog is the most open minded?