Aljazeera TV promotes the lie that prediction markets are eerily accurate, sucking up to InTrades PR and Hansons spinning. – [VIDEO]
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Tag Archives: betting markets
Opponents of real-money prediction markets are strong and powerful.
Prediction Markets APIs
Are our betting exchanges’- APIs programmable?
Fred Wilson insists on read/write APIs (#5).
Any comments?
Speculating and hedging on BetFairs sports prediction markets
The Motion Picture Association Of America (MPAA) comes out as fiercely against movie business futures.
The UK political prediction markets are starting to get fun.
The British Republicans (“-the Tories”-) have dipped a bit more at BetFair, yesterday, and everybody is wondering why. (See the first comment in the second link.) Expect Max Keiser to weight in. We are going to have fun this spring, I kind of feel that in the air. 
UPDATE: Bad poll for the Tories.
MAT FOGARTY FOR PRESIDENT
The sudden dip in March 16s InTrade ObamaCare prediction market was an intentional coup.
Allegedly, an idiot pressed the wrong button on March 16s InTrade ObamaCare prediction market. Do you buy it?
Here’s the most likely scenario as to what happened here:
Somebody had a decent short position. Say they had about 65 shares (the volume bars indicate that this was likely a <- 100 share transaction, ie, <- $5 worth of commissions for Intrade, so mentioning commissions / greed as a motivator is pure ignorance). They wanted to put up a buy of 65 shares at say 5%, so that if the price ever dips that low, they can close their short position and wind up with a nice profit. And then, big mistake, they hit sell instead of buy. The market plummets. Mystery solved. It’-s called human error.
Does InTrade participate on its 2012 Republication Nomination prediction markets?
A mysterious InTrade forum user (could be a trader or could be John Delaney) has posted this:
*****
Newbie
Joined: 24/01/2010 15:58:35
Messages: 1
Original thread at midasoracle.org:
So the actor has to a) not care about the transaction fee and b) have limitless margin. Intrade fits the bill for both of these. a) they don’t care about transaction fees because they are ultimately collecting them and b) if you only short when the bids are summed to over 100, it’s essentially an arb.
Until mid-April 2010, Intrade will refund market taking and expiry fees for arb trades –- details here.
Some products with a single guaranteed outcome are linked for cross-margining purposes. If you collect at least $10 by shorting all three contracts for the 2012 presidential election, then you will not have any funds frozen. The contract rules will tell you if a product is not linked (e.g. 2012 republican presidential nominees).
Intrade provides an API for developing trading applications. I am running a bot to take out market imbalances and as far as I’-m aware Intrade is not competing with me.
Ah.