Previously: Insider trading in the InTrade prediction market on health care reform?
Heres the man who would deliver a wise analysis on whether the InTrade HCR PM is being manipulated or traded by DC insiders.
Reply
OSCARS 2010: Did Justin Wolfers brag too much and too loudly? – [RELATIVE ACCURACY DEPARTMENT]
Jason (a Freakonomics reader):
You are giving yourself WAY too much credit. Siskel and Ebert successfully predict these awards 100% year after year. This isn’t a difficult thing to predict. Predicting something like the NCAA tourney, that would be an accomplishment, but if you look at rankings and your prediction market, you will fail just as much as the average bracket.
— Jason
Business Insider readers are rather skeptical of the InTrade insider trading story.
Plus, the event derivative is back to 55% [UPDATE: 47%] —-slightly above tossing a coin.
Here’-s The Hill on the prospect for the bill. –- More on Memeorandum.
Previously: Insider trading in the InTrade prediction market on health care reform?
Health care reform is down to 47% at InTrade. -> Toss a coin, it will get you the same.
Paul Krugmans excellent definition of the prediction markets
Betting markets don’t have any mystical power, but they do summarize conventional wisdom pretty well- […]
E-mail confidentially to tell me the names of the economists who over-hype the prediction markets.
ACCUSATION: Nate Silver over-uses Wikipedia. – [VIDEO]
Insider trading in the InTrade prediction market on health care reform?
…-it is a reasonably active market but atypically a lot of the trade is coming from the DC area when normally we might see trade coming from all the major urban areas.
ADDENDUM: For your information, in Great Britain, sporting insiders (such as athletes or jockeys) who trade on betting exchanges (such as BetFair) are actively monitored.
CONFUSED: Nate Silvers marshmallow politics – [VIDEO]
French bozo economist Augustin Landier is hiding his 2007 Op-Ed that stated that the financial crisis wont happen.
Augustin Landier is a man of minutiae. He runs a website at his glory that lists any paper, book or editorial he has penned. Except for one.
Our French smart ass co-wrote an Op-Ed in July 2007, titled, “-The mega-crash won’-t happen”- [PDF file]. Just everything in it was wrong, as the authors were defending the same rotten financial mechanisms and lack of regulations that generated the 2008 financial crisis.
Conveniently, this Op-Ed is not listed on his website —-while all the other ones are. Augustin Landier knows only one way to cover his ass —-hide things under the carpet. How courageous.
French bozo economist David Thesmar is hiding his 2007 Op-Ed that stated that the financial crisis wont happen.
David Thesmar is a man of minutiae. He runs a website at his glory that lists any paper, book or editorial he has penned. Except for one.
Our French smart ass co-wrote an Op-Ed in July 2007, titled, “-The mega-crash won’-t happen”- [PDF file]. Just everything in it was wrong, as the authors were defending the same rotten financial mechanisms and lack of regulations that generated the 2008 financial crisis.
Conveniently, this Op-Ed is not listed on his website —-while all the other ones are. David Thesmar knows only one way to cover his ass —-hide things under the carpet. How courageous.