Chris Pirillo on HubDub’s prediction markets
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Category Archives: Exchanges Markets
Prediction Markets = Betting Markets = Event Derivative Markets
Prediction Markets = Betting Markets = Event Derivative Markets
They don’-t agree, but I don’-t care. I am right, and they are wrong. 
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Prediction markets are a zero-sum game.
Did you lose money betting on InTrade, lately? Well, your money ended up in the pocket of that guy:
UPDATE: There was nothing about “-hating the game”- in my post. It was just a reference to the “-sheep and wolves”- concept floated by Robin Hanson. (See also the Iowa Electronic Markets research on their traders.)
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Swine Flu Prediction Markets
You can have fun and earn easy money on HubDub… if you know who did it… or if you think that he/she will get away with it.
Will FoxNews retract its story about $30M for the salt marsh harvest mouse?
Over the past 12 months, Ive turned $200 into more than $25,000 via the Intrade prediction markets.
Hank Scorpio
BetFair co-founder Andrew “Bert” Black’s blog is flooded (New Orleans-style) with comments from event derivative traders who question the rationality, logic, extent, fairness, true pupose and timing of the new “premium charges”.
PREVIOUSLY: BetFair impose new “Premium Charges”… Do BetFair gag the critics, too?
UPDATE: They announce a Q&A.
How does InTrade deal with insider trading?
InTrade CEO John Delaney (in 2007):
Insider trading is one of the wicked problems, perhaps. Intrade is about providing the best predictive information. If insiders have information, then getting that information reflected in the market increases the quality of the information. I know this is not the conventional view concerning insider trading, and I am not arguing wholesale adoption or acceptance of insider trading. But we all know that, in the real world, insiders trade on inside information. We have even had markets on insider trading. Our view is to get the best information available into the market while we make sure there is some fair protection for outsiders.
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As I said, the problem is that this view is very unpopular among event derivative traders.
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