Please join us at the Third Workshop on Prediction Markets, in Chicago on the afternoon of July 9, 2008. We plan academic talks, an industry panel, and open discussion. Participation is open to anyone, and we hope to be as flexible as possible in allocating speaking time. See the workshop website or the full Call for Contributions and Participation for details.
The eLab eXchange has just opened “-The Web of Misery,”- a competitive forecasting tournament hosted by Newsfutures, with 10 markets that reflect new online indicators of economic distress. Come and give it your best shot – forecast just how bad you think the economy is going to get in the next few months! One of the markets is reproduced above.
During periods of economic hardship, conventional wisdom suggests that some people tend to increase their level of certain behaviors, for example, they may “-cling to guns or religion,”- or perhaps turn to alcohol or gambling in an attempt to relieve any pressures they may be feeling about a “-rough patch.”- Additionally, the skyrocketing costs of food, health care and gas, not to mention the real estate downturn, suggest that, in general, many consumers will become more careful about how they spend their hard-earned dollars.
The Web of Misery captures 10 of these behaviors and let’-s consumers forecast their impact. You can try your hand at judging the impact of the economic slowdown at eLab eXchange today!
Previous blog posts by Donna Hoffman:
Pikum is a betting game created and played between people online. Players compete to see who can best predict the results of sports and other events. The person or people with the best overall predictions win. Pikum can be played for fun, or money.
SPECIAL ACCESS FOR THE MIDAS ORACLE READERS, HERE.
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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
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Paul Kedrosky was all excited, in April 2006, to tell his gullible readers that HedgeStreet received another round of funding —-adding all up to $24.9 million.
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And just 18 months after Paul Kedrosky’-s pronouncement, HedgeStreet (v1) ate the bullet and bellied up.
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And, of course, Paul Kedrosky has never mentioned to his readers the hard fact that those $24.9 million went up in flames —-creating nothing else than hot air.
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Why bothering with reporting the truth? Let’-s tell blog readers some fairy tales, instead. They swallow.
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Wouldn’-t that hard fact (the $24.9 million that disappeared in flames) be worthy of being cited, for the sake of “-pragmatism”-, on a blog written up by a “-pragmatist”-?
So, my good doctor, when is it that you’-re going to tell the truth to your readers?
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UPDATE: See his comment, just below…-
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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
People close to the CFTC say that one reason this is coming now is that the Chairman (who will be retiring soon) wants a legacy —-something he leaves behind that is innovative and that he can be known for pioneering. If that’-s the case, it means that nobody is pressuring them.
Signed: Deep Throat
…- in response to that.
George Tziralis should have refined a bit the statement he made in the first video below —-statement which I have slightly modified in the title above. We need inputs from the primary, advanced indicators, the experts, and the prediction markets. We need all of that. The prediction markets will never eliminate either the polls or the experts. The prediction markets come as a supplement in the mix.
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Ask Markets
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