Taxes are the largest class of risk people dont hedge. Our Jason Ruspini (allied with InTrade) wants to change that.

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Jason Ruspini, interviewed by Bloomberg:

Taxes &#8220-are the largest class of risk people don&#8217-t hedge,&#8221- said Jason Ruspini, a New York hedge fund analyst who established the market, which began trading last week. &#8220-Hopefully this year, with this election, there will be kind of an increased interest in this kind of thing.&#8221- […] &#8220-If Democrats are perceived as having a greater chance to get in the White House these tax contracts will go up,&#8221- said Ruspini, who declined to identify his employer because the market he created isn&#8217-t related to it. &#8220-If McCain is elected they won&#8217-t go up as much.&#8221- […] Right now, the market exists only for the top marginal income tax rate. Ruspini said he plans to have secondary markets based on Social Security taxes and whether Congress can restrain the alternative minimum tax from raising levies on tens of millions of households. […] &#8220-This is such a young field at this point,&#8221- Ruspini said. &#8220-Ten years from now, it&#8217-s going to be a huge market. Whenever you have a contract where there&#8217-s a lot of hedging utility, that tends to be a successful contract in the long run.&#8221- […]

Congrats to Jason.

Go read the whole piece.

Previously: Tax Futures, “In Real Life” – by Jason Ruspini

Nokias Enterprise Prediction Markets = Competitive Advantage

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Thus, the Nokia executives are pretty secretive about it. Bad luck for them, there&#8217-s a group blog on the Web that specializes on prediction markets and that digs deep. :-D So, here&#8217-s an inkling into Nokia&#8217-s enterprise prediction markets. The material was gathered from the World-Wide Web.

Maximilian Kammerer (Nokia&#8217-s Vice President CMO Global Customer Care) – (PDF file):

What technologies did you need for real-time information feedback among people working in 120 different countries?

KAMMERER: One sample element within the whole system is the Nokia Care Information Market. Like a stock exchange with a Web-based platform, people deal with information derivatives. They wager on the success of new strategies, innovations, solutions and projects. If their estimates change—the prices change. The price index creates an enormous transparency. The effectiveness of information markets relies on the fact that the collective intelligence is higher then every individual intelligence—even than that at management levels. Having understood that, our strategic decision-making is no longer purely based on historical data or expert opinions but on the intelligence of all concerned.

Translation: Nokia is embracing James Surowiscki&#8217-s wisdom of crowds. It&#8217-s my understanding that it&#8217-s the first time that that is said publicly by Nokia.

Now, let&#8217-s dig a bit. This interview was posted on the website of &#8220-1492&#8220-, a consulting firm from Austria. Now, the good question is&#8230- Which prediction market firm does supply &#8220-1492&#8243- with software and advice (which are resold to Nokia)? Suspense, suspense.

Gexid

Bernd

ANSWER: GEXID

Congrats to them.

As everybody knows in the field, prediction market firms very often have to sign NDAs before undertaking clients, which means that the public gets to know the names of those firms only when their clients allow this information to be published.

APPENDIX: Nokia is also listed as a client on Consensus Point&#8217-s website.

28 Ways to Make Money with Your Blog

No GravatarBlogging For Dollars

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Robin Hanson wants to rule the world —just as CEOs and heads of states do for a living.
  • Predictify got funded… Great for those who will be hired… But is it a good thing, overall?
  • Nassim Nicholas Taleb likens modern-day financial markets to medicine in the 1800s, when going to a hospital in London or Paris multiplied your risk of death by four times, he says. Similarly, quants increase risk by deploying flawed financial tools designed to reduce it, he argues.
  • TradeSports-InTrade — Check Deposits
  • BetFair Australia fought for free trade across Australian state boundaries… and won.

Erratic -but not Stochastic- Charts

IdeaBlog


Author Profile&nbsp-Editor and Publisher of Midas Oracle .ORG .NET .COM &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s mugshot &#8212- Contact Chris Masse &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s LinkedIn profile &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s FaceBook profile &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s Google profile &#8212- Sophia-Antipolis, France, E.U. Read more from this author&#8230-


Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:

  • Once again, a BetFair spin doctor misunderstands the prediction market approach.
  • Grandizer
  • Tss… Tss… Surely, you are joking Doctor Giberson.
  • Comments are still open on Midas Oracle.
  • “I am much more aligned with InTrade than you are, Chris.”
  • And the award for the most technology advanced software vendor goes to… the envelope, please…. QMARKETS in Israel. … [Cheers and applauses in the crowd.]
  • Jason Ruspini’s Tax Rate Prediction Markets… are taking off.

DELEGATES AND SUPERDELEGATES ACCOUNTANCY

= like sausages

You don&#8217-t really know what&#8217-s inside.

The Numbers Guy

Question Mark


Author Profile&nbsp-Editor and Publisher of Midas Oracle .ORG .NET .COM &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s mugshot &#8212- Contact Chris Masse &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s LinkedIn profile &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s FaceBook profile &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s Google profile &#8212- Sophia-Antipolis, France, E.U. Read more from this author&#8230-


Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:

  • Barack Obama is the 44th US president.
  • We already have prediction markets in future tax rates. It’s called the municipal bond yield curve.
  • O’Reilly – Money-Tech Conference
  • Google Profiles
  • Event Derivative Exchange HedgeStreet is baaaaaaaaack… from the grave.
  • Sports Derivative Forum
  • AMERICA’S CULTURAL HERITAGE AND ETHICAL VALUES ARE BEING POLLUTED AND DILUTED BY ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION.

OReilly – Money-Tech Conference

O’Reilly - Money-Tech Conference


Author Profile&nbsp-Editor and Publisher of Midas Oracle .ORG .NET .COM &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s mugshot &#8212- Contact Chris Masse &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s LinkedIn profile &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s FaceBook profile &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s Google profile &#8212- Sophia-Antipolis, France, E.U. Read more from this author&#8230-


Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:

  • We already have prediction markets in future tax rates. It’s called the municipal bond yield curve.
  • DELEGATES AND SUPERDELEGATES ACCOUNTANCY
  • Google Profiles
  • Event Derivative Exchange HedgeStreet is baaaaaaaaack… from the grave.
  • Sports Derivative Forum
  • AMERICA’S CULTURAL HERITAGE AND ETHICAL VALUES ARE BEING POLLUTED AND DILUTED BY ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION.
  • I’m a big believer in the market, that it is the best way of aggregating information. Due to the law of supply and demand and profit-seeking, it has a better idea of what a price should be than any other way of determining prices.

Sports Derivative Forum

No GravatarSports Derivative Forum – &#8220-Where sports fans and derivative investors come together&#8221-

I like the sub-title. It is now in the list of external web links.

By the way, thanks to all who have submitted link suggestions.

Read the previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • David Pennock’s European bosses have a screw loose.
  • The 2008 US presidential elections thru the lens of the Iowa Electronic Markets
  • BetFair changes the logic of its bet matching.
  • The U.S. has finally slid into recession, according to the majority of economists in the latest Wall Street Journal economic-forecasting survey.
  • The Dumb Agent’s page on prediction markets
  • What should Nigel Eccles do with HubDub’s cash
  • Why blogs on prediction markets are lively and interesting to read, while conferences on prediction markets are as dull as German sausages and suck like GoldFish.

Google Profiles

No GravatarGoogle Profiles

Read the previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Eliot Spitzer has simply demonstrated once again that those who rise to the top of organizations are very often the most demented, conflicted individuals in any group.
  • Business Risks & Prediction Markets
  • Brand-new BetFair bet-matching logic proves to be very controversial with some event derivative traders.
  • Jimmy Wales accused of editing Wikipedia for donations.
  • What the prediction market experts said on Predictify
  • Are you a MSR addict like Mike Giberson? Have nothing to do this week-end? Wanna trade on a play-money prediction exchange instead of watching cable TV? Wanna win an i-Phone?
  • The secret Google document that Bo Cowgill doesn’t want you to see

AMERICAS CULTURAL HERITAGE AND ETHICAL VALUES ARE BEING POLLUTED AND DILUTED BY ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION.

A figurine of Jesus Malverde (from Mexico) &#8212-&#8221-the patron saint of drug dealers&#8220-&#8230- if you can believe it. What a shame.

Jesus Malverde


Author Profile&nbsp-Editor and Publisher of Midas Oracle .ORG .NET .COM &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s mugshot &#8212- Contact Chris Masse &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s LinkedIn profile &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s FaceBook profile &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s Google profile &#8212- Sophia-Antipolis, France, E.U. Read more from this author&#8230-


Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:

  • We already have prediction markets in future tax rates. It’s called the municipal bond yield curve.
  • DELEGATES AND SUPERDELEGATES ACCOUNTANCY
  • O’Reilly – Money-Tech Conference
  • Google Profiles
  • Event Derivative Exchange HedgeStreet is baaaaaaaaack… from the grave.
  • Sports Derivative Forum
  • I’m a big believer in the market, that it is the best way of aggregating information. Due to the law of supply and demand and profit-seeking, it has a better idea of what a price should be than any other way of determining prices.

Im a big believer in the market, that it is the best way of aggregating information. Due to the law of supply and demand and profit-seeking, it has a better idea of what a price should be than any other way of determining prices.

Brian Shiau (of The Sim Exchange) interviewed by Reuters.

Shiau hired an analyst, Jesse Divnich, to help interpret the exchange&#8217-s data and provide commentary.

Jesse Divnich&#8217-s research reports

I like that. I think it should be made a rule that the person reporting on a set of prediction markets should have an expertise in the topic covered by those prediction markets. Example: the journalist reporting on the US political prediction markets should be a full-day political analyst &#8212-as opposed to a business/economics professor (or else) who spends most of his/her time outside of politics. We would have more insightful reports.


Author Profile&nbsp-Editor and Publisher of Midas Oracle .ORG .NET .COM &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s mugshot &#8212- Contact Chris Masse &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s LinkedIn profile &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s FaceBook profile &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s Google profile &#8212- Sophia-Antipolis, France, E.U. Read more from this author&#8230-


Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:

  • Barack Obama is the 44th US president.
  • We already have prediction markets in future tax rates. It’s called the municipal bond yield curve.
  • DELEGATES AND SUPERDELEGATES ACCOUNTANCY
  • O’Reilly – Money-Tech Conference
  • Google Profiles
  • Event Derivative Exchange HedgeStreet is baaaaaaaaack… from the grave.
  • Sports Derivative Forum