Tag Archives: wisdom of crowds

New Hampshire prediction markets screwed up political forecasting in 2008. Will they be right this time? — [CHARTS]

Posted on January 10, 2012 by Chris F. Masse

The political prediction markets got the Democratic race wrong in New Hampshire, last time. More here. – New Hampshire – The Democrats – The Hillary Clinton event derivative was expired to 100. – New Hampshire – The Republicans – The … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged 2008 New Hampshire Presidential Primary, 2008 US presidential elections, accuracy, Barack Obama, betting markets, Collective Intelligence, democrats, event derivative markets, event derivatives, events, Hillary Clinton, idea futures, indicators, John McCain, New Hampshire, polls, prediction markets, US presidential elections, US primaries, wisdom of crowds | 1 Comment

Keeping score of experts’ forecasts — [VIDEO]

Posted on December 12, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Philip Tetlock:

Posted in Forecasting (Science & Practice), Psychology | Tagged Collective Intelligence, expertise, experts, forecasting, forecasts, Philip Tetlock, predicting, Predictions, Psychology, wisdom of crowds | Leave a comment

Emile Servan-Schreiber’s Lumenogic (ex-NewsFutures) harnesses the wisdom of crowds (scientists and engineers) for the US Air Force. — [LINK]

Posted on September 1, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Emile Servan-Schreiber (cited in Bloomberg story): Every company faces the challenge of [finding out] what our company really knows — how do I access it, when I need it, how I need it — to help drive decision-making or results … Continue reading →

Posted in Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Consulting, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged Betting, betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, Emile Servan-Schreiber, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Lumenogic, NewsFutures, prediction markets, US Air Force, wisdom of crowds | Leave a comment

Socially valuable betting (based on accountable predictions) has long been legal in America, professor Hanson. — [AWARENESS]

Posted on July 15, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Robin Hanson: A track record tech must be combined with a social equilibrium that punishes those with poor records, and thus encourages rivals and victims to collect and report records. The lesson I take for forecast accuracy is that it … Continue reading →

Posted in Betting, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged bets, Betting, betting markets, Collective Intelligence, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasting, Long bets, Long Now Foundation, long-term, long-term predictions, mid-term predictions, predicting, prediction markets, social utility, socially valluable bets, socially valuable prediction markets, wisdom of crowds | Leave a comment

After years of pretending being a prediction market consultant, Robin Hanson finally confesses nobody has ever cared about his stuff. — [LINK]

Posted on July 13, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

The Emperor of enterprise prediction markets is naked. Robin Hanson: I can confirm that this disinterest is real. For example, when I try to sell firms on internal prediction markets wherein employees forecast things like sales and project completion dates, … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged betting markets, Collective Intelligence, enterprise prediction markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasting, forecasting accuracy, predicting, predicting accuracy, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, wisdom of crowds | Leave a comment

Meet the masters of collective intelligence. — [VIDEO]

Posted on May 24, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Scobble interviews the founder of Spigit. ADDENDUM: As you know, the wisdom of crowds requires diversity, decentralization and independence (among a total of 4 criteria). Confirmation with this study.

Posted in Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Inventions & Innovations | Tagged Collective Intelligence, crowd, crowds, Robert Scobble, SalesForce, Scobble, social tools, Spigit, wisdom of crowds | Leave a comment

Thomas Malone’s collective intelligence is an abyssal hodgepodge… “à la Prévert”. — [LINK]

Posted on May 13, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Topics of interest include but are not limited to: human computation social computing crowdsourcing wisdom of crowds (e.g., prediction markets) group memory and problem-solving deliberative democracy animal collective behavior mechanism design organizational design public policy design ethics of collective intelligence … Continue reading →

Posted in Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Events & Meetings | Tagged 2012, Collective Intelligence, conference, conferences, event, events, meeting, meetings, symposium, symposiums, Thomas Malone, wisdom of crowds, workshop, workshops | Leave a comment

Thomas Malone gives a bad name to collective intelligence. — [RANT]

Posted on May 4, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Thomas Malone is a smart man, and his institution is a great idea. But I can’t stand that: Solving Climate Change with CrowdSourcing I am fed up with the academics who are overselling the wisdom of crowds. Enough already.

Posted in Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds | Tagged climate change, Collective Intelligence, global warming, Thomas Malone, wisdom of crowds | 1 Comment

QualiQuanti’s Daniel Bô misunderstands collective intelligence. — [REBUTTAL]

Posted on May 3, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Ignorant people misunderstands the concept of collective intelligence. The latest instance is Daniel Bô, who works for the advertising industry in Europe. In a commercial brochure bragging about his ethereal prowess and the suprême intelligence of his associates, Daniel Bô … Continue reading →

Posted in Business, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce | Tagged brand content, Collective Intelligence, content marketing, Daniel Bô, James Surowiecki, marketing, QualiQuanti, wisdom of crowds | Leave a comment

What’s up with Emile Servan-Schreiber? — [LINK]

Posted on March 10, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

At Lumenogic (ex-NewsFutures), he practices “InnerViews“. Cool.

Posted in Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Journalism | Tagged Collective Intelligence, Emile Servan-Schreiber, InnerView, interviews, Journalism, Lumenogic, NewsFutures, wisdom of crowds | Leave a comment

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