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Tag Archives: US Vice President

Arbitrage in the InTrade Dem VP Market

Written by Koleman Strumpf on August 19, 2008 — 18 Comments

There has been an unexploited arbitrage opportunity in the Intrade Democratic VP market (“2008 Democratic VP Nominee (others upon request)”). As the attachment shows, you can sell the slate of candidates for 123.2 (just sum the bids) while you will only have to payout 100. This possibility has existed for at least three weeks, and [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

We interrupt this bulletin devoted to the upcoming CFTC ruling to inform you that we are afraid that your “Jim Webb becomes VP” event derivative is now totally worthless —unless you’re a short seller (a.k.a. a layer).

Written by Chris F. Masse on July 7, 2008 — Leave a Comment

WEBB DOESN’T WANT TO BE VP.
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InTrade
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Democratic Vice President Nominee

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Republican Vice President Nominee

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BetFair
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Next Vice President:

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Democratic Ticket

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Democratic Vice President Nominee

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Republican Vice President Nominee

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NewsFutures
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Barack Obama will pick a woman as running mate.

© NewsFutures
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Explainer On Prediction Markets
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Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by [...]

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The New Republic profiles the next Vice President of the United States of America —Jim Webb, maybe.

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 8, 2008 — Leave a Comment

Via mister Bo Cowgill
The New Republic
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Some British betting bloggers are completely out of the loop.
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UPDATE: Andrew Sullivan on Hillary Clinton’s exit statement. (He liked it.)
UPDATE: InTrade forum thread.
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InTrade
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Democratic Vice President Nominee

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Republican Vice President Nominee

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BetFair
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Next Vice President:

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Democratic Ticket

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Democratic Vice President Nominee

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Republican Vice President Nominee

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NewsFutures
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Barack Obama will [...]

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Hillary Clinton won’t be on the Democratic ticket. — It’s not going to happen. — N-E-V-E-R. — Not a chance. — Period.

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 6, 2008 — 2 Comments

George Will:
[...] Surely she, the most polarizing Democrat, is not the only Democrat who can help Obama appeal to the voters who rejected him in Kentucky and West Virginia. And as his running mate, she would nullify his narrative. The candidate embracing the “future” should not glue himself to Washington circa 1993. Someone promising to [...]

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

This is why I said that those who believe that Hillary Clinton has a chance to be on the Democratic ticket are “clueless”.

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 6, 2008 — Leave a Comment

- Michelle [Obama] Vetoes Hillary [Clinton]. – by Robert Novak – May 20, 2008 —– mirror link.

A veto —it’s a strong word. Those British betting bloggers are out of the loop.
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Posted in Politics | Also tagged , , , , , , , , ,

2 days after my ringing the alarm bell… THE FREE FALL

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 6, 2008 — 4 Comments

- My first warning: June 4. + My second warning: June 4, later that day. + My third warning: June 5.

- Now, spot the timeline in the event derivative chart below.
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Take that, Mike R.
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TAKEAWAY: If you are a UK-based or British trader on prediction markets, don’t believe a single word of what [...]

Posted in Betting, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

VIDEO: Why Hillary Clinton will never be the Vice President of the United States of America.

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 5, 2008 — Leave a Comment

Commenter “Just Hinting” gives us this link:
Dick Morris phone interview
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Posted in Politics | Also tagged , , ,

Dick Morris (ex-strategist for Bill Clinton) devoted, not one, but two, strong columns against the Hillary-Clinton-as-VP scenario.

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 5, 2008 — Leave a Comment

Dick Morris:
It would be an act of terminal insanity for Barack Obama to name Hillary Clinton as his vice presidential candidate. [...] Finally, having Hillary in the West Wing would be a nightmare.
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Dick Morris:
Instead of conceding defeat and campaigning for Obama, auditioning for the spot of loyal teammate, Hillary insists on keeping her options [...]

Posted in Politics | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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