Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: United Kingdom

DOCUMENTED: How Mark Davies joined a small startup called BetFair —when it was just an Excel spreadsheet file

Read the whole thing, it is entertaining.

BetFair (a prediction exchange) + ComRes (a pollster)

They are jointly operating a new website, focused on the next UK general election:
http://www.electionpredict.com/
As of today, the British GOP is set to win. We’ll see.

Ladbrokes data scandal: personal information of millions of customers offered for sale to national newspaper

Ladbrokes suffered a mighty embarrassment, earlier this week, and 4,500,000 customers had cause to get nervous, when the Mail On Sunday revealed that the UK uber-bookmaker’s customer database had been offered to them for sale:
For sale: Personal details of millions of Ladbrokes gamblers, offered to the MoS by a mysterious Australian
The confidential records of millions [...]

You can’t have accumulator bets on the weather of neighboring regions…

… because “if it snows in one city, it’s likely to snow in another city.” In other words, these weren’t independent events.
Via Barry Ritholtz (author of Bailout Nation)

The French have taken over the City of London.

Nicolas Sarkozy, President of the French Republic:
Do you know what it means for me to see for the first time in 50 years a French European commissioner in charge of the internal market, including financial services, including the City [of London]?

BetFair co-founder Ed Wray laments the suppression of UK’s tax incentive for startup entrepreneurs.

BetFair chairman Ed Wray: “Too many hurdles in the way of enterprise”.
Wray refers to a tax incentive that he and Black used to launch Betfair after they were forced to go to friends and family for funds, having failed to raise capital from institutional investors.
“That was very useful in terms of getting the business off [...]

TRAFIGURA: The Guardian was served with a gagging order forbidding it from reporting parliamentary business.

“The Guardian is prevented from identifying the MP who has asked the question, what the question is, which minister might answer it, or where the question is to be found. The Guardian is also forbidden from telling its readers why the paper is prevented – for the first time in memory – from reporting parliament.”
“The [...]

Anish Kapoor at London’s Royal Academy of Arts

UK’s Advertising Standards Authority slaps BetFair again —this time, over e-mail ads featuring a young poker player.

UK’s Advertising Standards Authority:
Ad
An e-mail ad for an online poker site showed a photograph of a young woman. Text stated “ONLINE EXPERIENCE IS MEASURED IN GAMES, NOT YEARS. JOIN THE NEW BREED. Annette Obrestad – “ANNETTE_15″.
Issue
1. The complainant objected that the ad was irresponsible, because it might encourage children and young people to gamble.
2. [...]

How BetFair Works = How BetFair lies about the history of the betting exchange industry

How BetFair Works — VIDEO

This BetFair video totally misinforms the public about the history of the betting exchange industry. It actually started in the United States of America, with the Iowa Electronic Markets in 1988, the ForeSight Exchange in 1994, and the Hollywood Stock Exchange in 1996.

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