Tag Archives: the New York Times

What InTrade CEO John Delaney told the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets)

Written by Chris F. Masse on July 16, 2008 — 3 Comments

John Delaney (CEO of InTrade) – (InTrade PDF file – CFTC PDF file):
July 4th 2008
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Three Lafayette Centre
1155 21st Street NW
Washington, DC 20581
U.S.A.
Attention: Office of the Secretariat
RE: “Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts”
To Whom it May Concern:
It is an honour for me as Chief Executive Officer of Intrade [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Regulations | Also tagged 202.418.5521, 4th of July, ABC, Acting Chairman, American Enterprise Institute, Andy Serwer, Arthur Levitt Jr., Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Bloomberg, Brookings Joint Centre, Bush, Cato Institute, CEO, CFTC, Charles Noussair, Chicago, Chicago Tribune, Chief Executive Officer, CNN, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Congress, David Leonhardt, David Paton, David Pennock, de facto leader, Economics Reporter, economist, energy, Eric Zitzewitz, Erik Snowberg, European Central Bank, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, evet derivatives, federal government, Federal Reserve System, Florida, Fortune, Frankfurt, general public use, George Mason University, governor, HDDVD, Important Mission, InTrade, InTrade CEO, Ireland, Ivy League College, Jason Ruspini, John Delaney, Justin Wolfers, KING, Koleman Strumpf, Lafayette Centre, laws, Leighton Vaughan-Williams, London, managing editor, Marco Ottaviani, Mark J. Perry, Mark Perry, media businesses, Michigan, naturaldisaster, New York, North Korea, Paul Tetlock, prediction exchanges, Prediction Market Limited, prediction markets, President, price discovery information, Professor, professor of economics, Ray Disc, real-money prediction markets, Regulations, Reuters, Richmond, Robert Mugabe, Robin Hanson, Saddam Hussein, Secretary, Securities and Exchange Commission, Stephen Dubner, the Financial Times, The Los Angles Times, The Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, TIME MAGAZINE, Toshiba, traded bets, U.S. Department of Energy, United States, United States Navy, University of Michigan-Flint, University of Westminster Business School, US government, USD, Wall Street Journal, Walt Lukken, What InTrade, White House, Yoshiaki Arata

CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 17, 2008 — 24 Comments

CFTC – (PDF file):
CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts
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SUMMARY:
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (Commission or CFTC) is soliciting comment on the appropriate regulatory treatment of financial agreements offered by markets commonly referred to as event, prediction, or information markets. \1\ For ease of reference and to avoid classification issues, these [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Regulations | Also tagged 202.418.5521, 202.418.5578, AEI-Brookings Joint Center, American Enterprise Institute, bet markets, betting markets, binary options, Bruce Fekrat, by-products, Capper, catastrophe single event insurance option contracts, CFTC, Chicago Board Of Trade, commodity futures, commodity futures contracts, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, commodity options, commodity options contracts, Congress, cottonseed oil, crude oil, D.C., David A. Stawick, definitions, Director, Division of Market Oversight, Eric W. Zitzewitz, event contracts, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event futures, event markets, Explainers, futures contracts, futures markets, governor, Hal R. Varian, House Committee on Agriculture, House-Senate Conference Committee, InTrade, Iraq, Jason Ruspini, Justin Wolfers, laws, legalization, livestock products, Michael Abramowicz, Michael Gorham, natural gas, office, particular candidate for political office, particular presidential candidate, Paul C. Tetlock, Paul Wolfowitz, peanut oil, Porter, prediction markets, predictive tools, producer, real-money prediction markets, Regulations, retail customers, retail market participants, retail users, Robert W. Hahn, Secretary, Senate, Senate Committee on Agriculture and Forestry, South Carolina, soybean oil, Special Counsel, specific candidate, specific farmer, The University of Iowa, Three Lafayette Centre, Tom W. Bell, Trader, United States, United States Of America, University of Iowa Departments of Accounting and Economics, University's College of Business Administration, USD, Valencia, Vernon Smith, Washington, West Coast, young economist

BEWARE THE BLOGGING ACADEMICS: They are not blogging to inform us —they are blogging to promote themselves.

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 9, 2008 — Leave a Comment

The New York Times on the brand-new SSRN ranking functionality:
Bloggers like Mr. Reynolds [a university professor] tend to do well on the site, since they can promote their work and offer links to their articles.
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Social Science Research Network – (SSRN)
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Posted in Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Prediction Journalism, Resources - References | Also tagged bloggers, blogging, Open Media, Professor, Social Science Research Network, SSSN

BetFair makes the frontpage of the New York Times –as the White Knight of sports. — Note that the term “prediction markets” is never pronounced. — TradeSports is not mentioned, but the last paragraph of the article suggests that all Internet sports betting should be legal and regulated.

Written by Chris F. Masse on May 24, 2008 — 1 Comment

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Previously: BetFair’s Mark Davies on sports betting and the fight against corruption
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Posted in Analysis (Meta), Betting, Exchanges & Markets, Regulations | Also tagged BetFair, Betting, betting exchange, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Internet sports betting, Mark Davies, match-fixing scandals, prediction exchange, prediction markets, Regulations, Sports, sports betting, sports corruption, TradeSports

Google Search thinks that Midas Oracle has more value than the New York Times and Freakonomics when the topic is Google’s enterprise prediction markets. How do you like that, Bo? It’s “cool”, no?

Written by Chris F. Masse on May 23, 2008 — Leave a Comment

Posted in Humor, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Midas Oracle Statistics | Also tagged Google, Google Search, Google Web Search, Humor, Midas Oracle, prediction markets, rankings, Robin Hanson, web search results

Ubber finance blogger Barry Ritholtz believes in magic. He believes that, with more volumes on the event derivative markets, comes the Omniscience —capital “O”.

Written by Chris F. Masse on May 20, 2008 — 5 Comments

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Our good friend Barry Ritholtz.has persuaded himself that our real-money prediction markets suffer from an irremediable and fatal problem: liquidity on political event derivative markets is too thin for smart Wall Street people like him to take their market-generated probabilities seriously. Barry Ritholtz is keen to tout oranges–apples comparisons: the NYSE volume versus the Obama–Clinton [...]

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Leading & Lagging Indicators | Also tagged accuracy, advanced indicators, Barry Ritholtz, clueless mainstream media, event derivative markets, event derivatives, finance blogger, Market Liquidity, New Hampshire, omniscience, polls, prediction markets, trades, transactions, volumes, Wall Street

Yet another guy, writing about prediction markets in the mainstream media, who does not master what he is talking about.

Written by Chris F. Masse on May 20, 2008 — 15 Comments

Via Adam Siegel of Inkling Markets,
John McQuaid of Wired.

It’s incoherent to start a rant against prediction markets by this upbeat line, “Prediction markets can be spookily accurate.”
He blames the New Hampshire upset on poor liquidity. Where is the scientific evidence of that? Total invention by our good friend Barry Ritholtz. The New Hampshire prediction markets [...]

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Leading & Lagging Indicators | Also tagged accuracy, Adam, Adam Siegel, Barry Ritholtz, Collective Intelligence, event derivative markets, event derivatives, John McQuaid, mainstream media, New Hampshire, prediction markets, Wired, wisdom of crowds

Professor Koleman Strumpf tells CNN that a prediction market, by essence, can’t predict an upset.

Written by Chris F. Masse on April 22, 2008 — 3 Comments

CNN:
FOREMAN: I’ve got something I want you to take a look at. Look at this. It could be the price of a stock or a mutual fund. It isn’t. It’s the odds that a particular candidate, the red here is Hillary Clinton, who will become president of the United States. It’s called the predictive market. [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Explainers | Also tagged accuracy, CNN, crude oil, director of the Sports Book, Dublin, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Forecasting (Science & Practice), FOREMAN, Hillary Clinton, historical prediction markets, InTrade, Iowa, Iowa Electronic Markets, Ireland, JOHN AVELLO, Johnny Avello, Kansas, Koleman Strumpf, Las Vegas, Madame Tussaud's Wax Museum, online markets, particular candidate, prediction markets, President, president of the United States, Professor, surprise, United States, University of Kansas, University of Kansas School of Business, upset, USD, Wall Street, Washington, Wisconsin, WYNN, WYNN HOTEL

Enterprise prediction markets give voice to serious, technology-minded professionals who really know their vertical (engineers, analysts and contractors) —and reveal how frivolous and unpertinent most horizontal managers are.

Written by Chris F. Masse on April 14, 2008 — 2 Comments

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Via prediction market pioneer Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures [*], the New York Times (2 pages):
At InterContinental Hotels, Zubin Dowlaty, vice president for emerging technologies, decided to create an online market last fall to “harvest and prioritize ideas” from within the hotel’s 1,000-person technology staff. “We wanted to tap the creative class that may not be [...]

Posted in Cases, Exchanges & Markets, Inventions & Innovations, Mechanism Designs | Also tagged analysts, contractors, corporate prediction markets, Emile Servan-Schreiber, engineers, enterprise prediction markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, innovation, InterContinental Hotels, internal prediction markets, managers, new product, new product innovation, NewsFutures, online market, prediction markets, Priority Club, private prediction markets, technology staff, USD, vice president for emerging technologies, Zubin Dowlaty

The New York Times article doesn’t mention Google’s enterprise prediction markets, alas. — Bo Cowgill says that the illustration published in the sidebar defines exclusively what is done at Google.

Written by Chris F. Masse on April 10, 2008 — 2 Comments

Right-click on the New York Times graphic below, open Bo Cowgill’s post in another browser tab, and read his arguments.
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Image Credit: Chris Gash for the New York Times
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Adam Siegel of Inkling Markets is also out with a post on that NYT article, but it is of no intellectual interest. Maybe Adam should blog less quickly [...]

Posted in Cases, Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged Adam, Adam Siegel, Best Buy, Bo Cowgill, Chris Gash, corporate prediction markets, enterprise prediction markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Google, Google's enterprise prediction markets, internal prediction markets, management tool, New York Times, prediction markets, private prediction markets

Tag Archives: the New York Times

What InTrade CEO John Delaney told the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets)

CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts

BetFair makes the frontpage of the New York Times –as the White Knight of sports. — Note that the term “prediction markets” is never pronounced. — TradeSports is not mentioned, but the last paragraph of the article suggests that all Internet sports betting should be legal and regulated.

Google Search thinks that Midas Oracle has more value than the New York Times and Freakonomics when the topic is Google’s enterprise prediction markets. How do you like that, Bo? It’s “cool”, no?

Ubber finance blogger Barry Ritholtz believes in magic. He believes that, with more volumes on the event derivative markets, comes the Omniscience —capital “O”.

Yet another guy, writing about prediction markets in the mainstream media, who does not master what he is talking about.

Professor Koleman Strumpf tells CNN that a prediction market, by essence, can’t predict an upset.

Enterprise prediction markets give voice to serious, technology-minded professionals who really know their vertical (engineers, analysts and contractors) —and reveal how frivolous and unpertinent most horizontal managers are.

The New York Times article doesn’t mention Google’s enterprise prediction markets, alas. — Bo Cowgill says that the illustration published in the sidebar defines exclusively what is done at Google.

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