Tag Archives: tax prediction markets
Multi-millionaire, Republican, professor of economics Greg Mankiw uses Jason Ruspini’s tax prediction markets at InTrade to assess the probability that a hypothetical John McCain presidency starting in 2009 assumes a raise in federal taxes.
Via Marginal Revolution
P(tax hike / McCain) = 74%.
APPENDIX: Robin Hanson does not know yet who he is going to vote for, in November 2008… and feels that no scholar can help him.
How have Jason Ruspini’s tax futures markets at InTrade-TradeSports fared, so far?
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The most liquid of the Jason Ruspini-created contracts:
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I would like to talk a bit about the Internet marketing of these prediction markets, in the rest of this present post.
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As you all know, Jason Ruspini published a blog post on his (semi-abandoned) blog (spot the comments), was interviewed by Bloomberg, and then went to BNN [...]
Jason Ruspini was an imprudent and cocky predictor, but, in the end, he is a honest man.
Jason Ruspini went overboard on BBN TV, claiming his tax futures markets will become InTrade’s most popular ones in 2009, but he managed to control well his descent to Earth:
[Y]es they have lost a lot of steam and that statement seems overconfident at this point, – or has always [been] for that matter. There was [...]
Hedge your taxes –and forecast them too.
The mainstream media continue to show interest for Jason Ruspini’s tax futures markets.
Previously: Video.
2009 tax futures yielding 1.5%
The “>34″ contracts are being offered at 96. If you discount the possibility of the marginal tax rate for that year being below 34%, this is an annual yield of about 1.5%, after transaction fees. The 2010 “>34″s are paying around 1.35% and the 2011s, 1.2%. Buying any of those allows you to [...]
In spite of their inherent complexity, Jason Ruspini’s tax rate prediction markets show some liquidity.
Not surprising: plenty of good advanced indicators. (David Pennock, do take notice. )
Jason “Avida Dollars” Ruspini’s tax rate prediction markets are finally accessible thru InTrade V2. Great. That allows me to publish dynamic charts, now. (With V1, there aren’t any.)
Highest Marginal Single-Filer Fed Income Tax Rate to be Equal or Greater than 36% [...]
Intrade, with carry
For years now, a criticism of Intrade has been its lack of a positive carry in long-term markets. In contrast to regulated futures exchanges, Intrade does not pay out interest on deposits to most traders. While understandable, this discourages liquidity and can skew prices near extremes as future winnings are discounted, exaggerating any favorite/longshot bias.
If [...]
Meet Jason Ruspini, Financial Research Analyst.
[I took the shot when he was smiling ---saying, "Well, obviously, they are not EuroDollars yet", or something of that effect.]
Jason Ruspini @ LinkedIn
Jason Ruspini’s blog
Jason Ruspini @ Midas Oracle
[Jason Ruspini is the little joker who put up the "Meet Chris Masse" post, last year. Retaliation is something he should expect, of [...]
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