Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: statistics

SXSW: Nate Silver explains how he approached political forecasting for the 2008 US presidential elections. – [VIDEO]

In part #2, he speaks about the books he is writing:

ACCUSATION: Nate Silver over-uses Wikipedia. – [VIDEO]

Nate Silver explains how he builds his forecasting models. – [VIDEO]

Via Joe Weisenthal

The relative advantage of prediction markets (over conventional means of forecasting, namely polls and statistical models) is remarkably… SMALL.

Sharad Goel:
In a new study, Daniel Reeves, Duncan Watts, Dave Pennock and I compare the performance of prediction markets to conventional means of forecasting, namely polls and statistical models. Examining thousands of sporting and movie events, we find that the relative advantage of prediction markets is remarkably small. [...]
Given that sports and entertainment markets are [...]

Time-Series Forecasting

- The different kinds of forecasting software —including time-series forecasting.
- Some forecasting startups make use of the open source and/or SaaS models. I need your feedback on all this. Please, comment below, e-mail me, wave me, or tweet me.
- Lokad – (concurrent time-series forecasting) – Video

- Data Applied – (neural network algorithm)

External Links: Lokad – [...]

Climate Stats = Sausage Making

How to Make Your Own Hockey Stick – Required reading for our good friend Caveat Bettor.
More info on “climategate” at Memeorandum
“Hide the decline”

“Hide the decline”

Should a blog run ads?

Robin Hanson’s web stats (the drop came following his ditching of his co-authors):

He has asked whether his readers would allow him to have ads. I left a comment, there.
Blog Herald:
3 Odd Reasons Why I Don’t Read Your Blog
- ADS. I find that the types of ads a blog runs is quite telling. The blogger that [...]

The Elements of Statistical Learning

The Elements of Statistical Learning
Free PDF file

Midas Oracle is the world’s #1 blog on collective forecasting and market-generated predictions.

June to September 2009:

In the near future, Midas Oracle is going to unveil strategic partnerships that will allow us to reach millions of people a year.

Midas Oracle has a Google PageRank of 6/10.
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What Is Midas Oracle About?
Midas Oracle is a popular group blog about predictions. We are interested in:

objective, dynamic probabilistic predictions;
collective intelligence mechanisms producing probabilistic [...]

Andrew Gelman on forecasting and statistical models

Andrew Gelman visits Google’s Mountain View headquarters:

The 2008 presidential election and state polls:

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