Tag Archives: social utility

Socially valuable betting (based on accountable predictions) has long been legal in America, professor Hanson. — [AWARENESS]

Posted on July 15, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Robin Hanson: A track record tech must be combined with a social equilibrium that punishes those with poor records, and thus encourages rivals and victims to collect and report records. The lesson I take for forecast accuracy is that it … Continue reading →

Posted in Betting, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged bets, Betting, betting markets, Collective Intelligence, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasting, Long bets, Long Now Foundation, long-term, long-term predictions, mid-term predictions, predicting, prediction markets, social utility, socially valluable bets, socially valuable prediction markets, wisdom of crowds | Leave a comment

Is Robin Hanson a market fundamentalist?

Posted on June 10, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Niall O’Connor: Robin Hanson, is what I would term a market fundamentalist – somebody who believes that markets are the primary mechanism for achieving the public good. Recent events have demonstrated that this creed is morally bankrupt. We are, in … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Politics | Tagged betting markets, Collective Decision Making, conditional prediction markets, decision markets, decision-aid markets, event derivative markets, free markets, free-market philosophy, market fundamentalists, markets, prediction markets, predictive power, public good, Robin Hanson, social utility, society | 5 Comments

If prediction market advocates are so confident, why arenâ€™t their claims more specific?

Posted on April 5, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Jed Christiansen was kind enough to reply to my post: If prediction markets are so good at forecasting, why arenâ€™t they being used much more widely? #1. (Public or enterprise) traders mainly bring to the exchange some bits of information … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Consulting, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged adoption, corporate prediction markets, enterprise prediction markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), internal prediction markets, Jed Christiansen, prediction markets, private prediction markets, social utility | 3 Comments

If prediction markets are so good at forecasting, why arenâ€™t they being used much more widely?

Posted on April 2, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Jed Christiansen has an awesome industry analysis … which I will disagree with. Number one, I don’t understand why information aggregation would be a “bottom-up” approach (as opposed to “top-down”). Our traders bring bits of information to the market —but … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Consulting, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged adoption, corporate prediction markets, enterprise prediction markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), internal prediction markets, Jed Christiansen, prediction markets, private prediction markets, social utility | 13 Comments

Obstacles to Prediction Market Adoption

Posted on January 21, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

BusinessWeek: Harrah’s is setting up a pilot prediction market to forecast customer activity in one of its domestic casino operations. [...] Since the power of prediction markets hinges on effectively tapping into cognitive diversity throughout an organization, Page also argues … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Cases, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged Collective Intelligence, corporate prediction markets, enterprise prediction markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), internal prediction markets, prediction markets, private prediction markets, social utility, social value, wisdom of crowds | Leave a comment

Are prediction markets useful?

Posted on November 26, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

According to Alan Abramowitz, John Tierney has been “greatly exaggerating the accuracy of the betting markets.” “They follow the polls. Thatâ€™s it.” – - My comment to Alan Abramowitz and John Tierney: “They follow the polls. Thatâ€™s it.” Yes, they … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism | Tagged 2008 Democratic primary, 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, BetFair, betting markets, event derivative markets, HubDub, InTrade, NewsFutures, prediction markets, social utility, US politics, usefulness, utility | 3 Comments

It wasn’t about the predictions.

Posted on November 15, 2008 by Jason Ruspini

Let’s not confuse media visibility with utility. Aside from the depressed Obama-to-win prices on one exchange, prediction market and polling aggregation results for the 2008 election were essentially the same using squared errors. Despite his insane schematics, Emile Servan-Schreiber has … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Psychology | Tagged accuracy, Daily Kos, Emile Servan-Schreiber, fivethirtyeight.com, Nate Silver, polls, prediction markets, social utility, state polls, utility | 10 Comments

My open challenge to AskMarkets co-founder George Tziralis

Posted on November 15, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Dear George, Congrats for the launch of AskMarkets. Best wishes to your prediction exchange and consulting firm. Here’s the perfect opportunity to ask you the “question that kills”: What was the social utility of the political election prediction markets during … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Consulting, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Software | Tagged accuracy, Ask Markets, AskMarkets, George Tziralis, political election prediction markets, prediction markets, social utility, utility | 1 Comment

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