Tag Archives: social utility

Socially valuable betting (based on accountable predictions) has long been legal in America, professor Hanson. — [AWARENESS]

Robin Hanson: A track record tech must be combined with a social equilibrium that punishes those with poor records, and thus encourages rivals and victims to collect and report records. The lesson I take for forecast accuracy is that it … Continue reading

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Is Robin Hanson a market fundamentalist?

Niall O’Connor: Robin Hanson, is what I would term a market fundamentalist – somebody who believes that markets are the primary mechanism for achieving the public good. Recent events have demonstrated that this creed is morally bankrupt. We are, in … Continue reading

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If prediction market advocates are so confident, why aren’t their claims more specific?

Jed Christiansen was kind enough to reply to my post: If prediction markets are so good at forecasting, why aren’t they being used much more widely? #1. (Public or enterprise) traders mainly bring to the exchange some bits of information … Continue reading

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If prediction markets are so good at forecasting, why aren’t they being used much more widely?

Jed Christiansen has an awesome industry analysis … which I will disagree with. Number one, I don’t understand why information aggregation would be a “bottom-up” approach (as opposed to “top-down”). Our traders bring bits of information to the market —but … Continue reading

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Obstacles to Prediction Market Adoption

BusinessWeek: Harrah’s is setting up a pilot prediction market to forecast customer activity in one of its domestic casino operations. [...] Since the power of prediction markets hinges on effectively tapping into cognitive diversity throughout an organization, Page also argues … Continue reading

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Are prediction markets useful?

According to Alan Abramowitz, John Tierney has been “greatly exaggerating the accuracy of the betting markets.” “They follow the polls. That’s it.” – - My comment to Alan Abramowitz and John Tierney: “They follow the polls. That’s it.” Yes, they … Continue reading

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Chris Masse (in his holy greatness) asks the question that so terrifies Jed Christiansen.

- Terrified. -

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It wasn’t about the predictions.

Let’s not confuse media visibility with utility. Aside from the depressed Obama-to-win prices on one exchange, prediction market and polling aggregation results for the 2008 election were essentially the same using squared errors. Despite his insane schematics, Emile Servan-Schreiber has … Continue reading

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My open challenge to AskMarkets co-founder George Tziralis

Dear George, Congrats for the launch of AskMarkets. Best wishes to your prediction exchange and consulting firm. Here’s the perfect opportunity to ask you the “question that kills”: What was the social utility of the political election prediction markets during … Continue reading

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The fact that Emile Servan-Schreiber (usually, a smart man) treats the 2008 US presidential elections, as seen thru the lens of the NewsFutures prediction markets, so lightly, making it a race of spermatozoids swimming their way to the Oval Room, shows you that the prediction market luminaries are incapable of giving you any clear and convincing demonstration that their prediction markets has had a social utility during the 2008 race for the White House.

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