Chris Masse (in his holy greatness) asks the question that so terrifies Jed Christiansen. Posted on November 20, 2008 by admin –Terrified. – Related PostsAre prediction markets useful?My open challenge to AskMarkets co-founder George TziralisIt wasnt about the predictions.
Heh… okay, I’ll bite.
My answer is: they can be. To quote myself from the article you linked to:
“While [prediction markets] are on par with the accuracy of the best poll aggregators, their forecasts are real-time and reflect the state of the race right now.”
But they won’t always be useful.
“their forecasts are real-time and reflect the state of the race right now.”
That’s not a huge benefit for the people out there. They are not news junkies.
We have to dig more to find the real benefits of the prediction markets.
Perhaps that’s our disagreement. I think that a real-time state-of-the-race is valuable.
To news junkies like you and moi. Not to the real people out there.
[…] F. Masse November 25th, 2008 John Tierney and Jed Christiansen are making the same mistake: they think that people and experts should be impressed by the […]
” their forecasts are real-time and reflect the state of the race right now.”
In a sense, the forecasts done by the poll aggregators (Nate Silver and Electoral-Vote.com) are also updated every day —which is a high enough frequency for most people.