Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: simulation

THE DAY ROBIN HANSON FOUGHT FOR HIS BABY

Robin Hanson on PAM:
Just before Phase I commenced, I had designed and implemented a combinatorial market maker, and proposed that PAM use it. Charles Polk, president of Net Exchange, chose instead to refit their existing software to this application. [*] After the simulation failure at the end of Phase I, I threatened to quit. John [...]

Fantasy Sport: The only way to crack open the US betting/gambling/gaming market… LEGALLY.

Wikipedia:
A fantasy sport (also known as rotisserie, roto, or fairy-tale sport; or owner simulation) is a game where fantasy owners build a team that competes against other fantasy owners based on the statistics generated by individual players or teams of a professional sport. Probably the most common variant converts statistical performance into points that are [...]

YooNew, fears and hopes

YooNew is an online exchange based in New York City where fans may buy and sell “ticket derivatives”. The ticket derivatives are rights to tickets conditional on certain teams playing in certain playoff matches. So if you were to buy a New England Patriots Superbowl 42 “Fantasy Seat” for $1500, knowing that tickets [...]

Some global warming updates from GISS

Intrade (or any prediction exchange wanting to compete), please list global warming contracts!
The information will probably end up saving lives, as we can more efficiently allocate finite resources to global warming research and reduction (vs. preventative healthcare, disease control, micro loans, etc.). For instance, we spend a lot of money on the AIDS pandemic in [...]

Prediction Markets und Konsensfindung für effiziente Entscheidungen – pro:kons

pro:kons:
Prediction Markets und Konsensfindung für effiziente Entscheidungen
Prognosemärkte: Prediction Markets – Verteiltes Wissen nutzen
Das Prognose-Modul der Software pro:kons liefert Vorhersagen spezifischer zukünftiger Ereignisse durch Meinungsaggregation. Es bedient sich dabei der Simulation von virtuellen Börsen (Prediction Markets) auf denen die Zukunftswerte von Produkten, Ereignissen, Personen, politische Parteien, oder anderen realen Gegebenheiten gehandelt werden.
Der Grundgedanke basiert auf der [...]

What will employees, in 2009, use as their PRIMARY tools for everyday learning in the workplace?

Inkling Markets:
PREDICTION      CURRENT VALUE      TODAY
On the Job Training/ Learning     91.4%     0.00
e-Learning     88.3%     0.00
Performance Support     85.9%     0.00
Social Networks     81.0%     0.00
Google Searching     72.9%     0.00
Gaming and Simulation     68.0%     0.00
Podcasts     65.5%     0.00
Classroom Training     60.5%     0.00
Unknown Technology/Techniques     51.9%     0.00
Webinars     [...]

A Brief History Of Time — BlogShares Edition

Folks, the history of BlogShares is fascinating.
BlogShares was written in early 2003 by Seyed Razavi in his free time. The overall objective of BlogShares is the exploration of an emerging social network while providing an addictive and fun environment for bloggers to join and help add to the worth of the social network. Another [...]

Alex Costakis’ profile at LinkedIn

Alex Costakis’ profile at LinkedIn
Managing Director, Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX) at Cantor Fitzgerald, LP
Specialties:
Prediction markets, virtual stock exchanges, market simulation design and software solutions. Entertainment research and film marketing. TV production and show development.

Email Interview: Ken Kittlitz

My responses to a set of questions Chris Masse recently emailed to me:
Chris. F. Masse: Ken Kittlitz, you co-founded the Foresight Exchange (it went by the name “Idea Futures” at the time) in 1994. Would you mind telling me two words on your co-founders? Which ones brought the most into the project? Are you still [...]

The Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006 and Second Life

Jason “The Brain” Ruspini has posted an interesting blog post on the currency created by the firm owning Second Life (a virtual world) and the regulatory implications. He linked to a statement from the lawyer of Second Life (“Ginsu Linden” = “Torley Linden” ??), which is reproduced below (emphasis added, as always):
As this Act was [...]

Search

Post Categories