Tag Archives: prediction markets

Jason Ruspini rebuts Eric Zitzewitz on the regulation of political prediction markets. — [COMMENT]

Posted on February 2, 2012 by Chris F. Masse

Did Eric Zitzewitz read Dodd-Frank? Jason Ruspini: Unfortunately, election contracts and ALL event contracts appear to be prohibited by CFTC regulation 40.11, released in July 2011 as part of Dodd-Frank: “(a) Prohibition. A registered entity shall not list for trading … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Regulations | Tagged academia, bets, Betting, betting markets, CFTC, derivatives, Dodd-Frank, Economics, Eric Zitzewitz, event derivative markets, event derivatives, events, forecasting, Jason Ruspini, laws, Politics, predicting, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, Regulations, Research | 1 Comment

Eric Zitzewitz petitions the CFTC in favor of real-money prediction markets about politics. — [TEXT]

Posted on February 2, 2012 by Chris F. Masse

Eric Zitzewitz: We are academic researchers who study prediction markets. We are writing in favor of allowing NADEX, or a similar entity, to offer a broad range of political and policy event futures, including the three they are currently proposing. … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Regulations | Tagged academia, bets, Betting, betting markets, CFTC, derivatives, Economics, Eric Zitzewitz, event derivative markets, event derivatives, events, forecasting, laws, Politics, predicting, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, Regulations, Research | Leave a comment

Central banks should set up prediction markets. — [LINK]

Posted on January 12, 2012 by Chris F. Masse

Central banks should set up prediction markets.

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged banks, betting markets, central banks, event derivative markets, event derivatives, events, prediction markets | Leave a comment

Max Keiser on NADEX — [VIDEO]

Posted on January 11, 2012 by Chris F. Masse

Posted in Ethics, Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Financial Markets, Politics | Tagged betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, events, Max Keiser, Nadex, prediction markets | Leave a comment

New Hampshire prediction markets screwed up political forecasting in 2008. Will they be right this time? — [CHARTS]

Posted on January 10, 2012 by Chris F. Masse

The political prediction markets got the Democratic race wrong in New Hampshire, last time. More here. – New Hampshire – The Democrats – The Hillary Clinton event derivative was expired to 100. – New Hampshire – The Republicans – The … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged 2008 New Hampshire Presidential Primary, 2008 US presidential elections, accuracy, Barack Obama, betting markets, Collective Intelligence, democrats, event derivative markets, event derivatives, events, Hillary Clinton, idea futures, indicators, John McCain, New Hampshire, polls, prediction markets, US presidential elections, US primaries, wisdom of crowds | 1 Comment

The real reasons why prediction markets are accurate. — [LINK]

Posted on January 9, 2012 by Chris F. Masse

Emile Servan-Schreiber: – Over the long run and many predictions, markets outperform most individuals; – The more participants there are in a market, the more accurate it is (although there are diminishing returns); – The more participants there are in … Continue reading →