Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: prediction markets

“In 1965, Congress said Medicare would cost $9 billion by 1990. In reality, it cost $67 billion –seven times more than the prediction.”

Ron Paul
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ADDENDUM
More info on health care reform on Memeorandum, Politico and Slate.

Does InTrade participate on its own prediction markets?

One (anonymous) InTrade trader:
I am utterly convinced Intrade participates in its own markets. Every few hours some kind of API hits the bids on the GOP 2012 nomination contract when the bids sum to more 100. It will even short bids at 0.1, which is a money losing proposition when you figure the transaction [...]

What was Max Keiser doing at InTrade HQ two years ago? –> “due diligence”…!??…

Max Keiser:
[...] I asked John Delaney and his tech team when I was doing my due diligence on InTrade a couple of years ago in Dublin – about the firm’s own participation in making markets – and the potential to ‘manage’ prices in ways that were outside of the normal price discovery mechanism. I came [...]

Nate Silver: InTrade probability on ObamaCare is quite right.

Nate Silver:
I’m not sure if you should particularly care about the little 5 or 10 point hedges (usually to the pessimistic side) that I’ve periodically been recommending around the Intrade contract on the chances of reform passing. Even if you staffed a whole room full of the smartest vote-counters, modelers and analysts and had [...]

When the ObamaCare event derivative reaches 80%, I will officially declare America as a socialist country —just like France and Sweden.

ADDENDUM
More info on health care reform on Memeorandum, Politico and Slate.

“InTrade should address this incident and suspend the account of whoever did this.”

Dixit Jason Ruspini.

OBAMACARE PREDICTION MARKET WAS BRIEFLY MANIPULATED YESTERDAY EVENING SO IT WOULD ARTIFICIALLY CLOSE AT $35. – [CHART]

IT IS NOW BACK TO ABOVE $60.

See Jason Ruspini’s comment. UPDATE: Carlos Graterol. Joe Weisenthal. Gawker. Max Keiser.

ADDENDUM
More info on health care reform on Memeorandum and Politico.

Max Keiser weighs in on potential insider trading and hypothetical manipulation in the ObamaCare prediction market at InTrade.

Max says that the political prediction markets are “routinely manipulated” and we often see “price rigging”…

9:57 into:

Previously: What has been the best InTrade prediction market ever? Has the ObamaCare prediction market at InTrade been “ahead of the commentary”?

What has been the best InTrade prediction market ever? Has the ObamaCare prediction market at InTrade been “ahead of the commentary”?

Jason Ruspini (who feels that the health care reform proposal might well be adopted) wanna feedback from you, folks.

Which InTrade prediction market(s) has/have been ahead of the Press (rather than the other way around)? What is/are the best (most divergent from the commentary, and correct) InTrade prediction market(s) in people’s memories?
Do you sense that the [...]

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