Tag Archives: prediction exchange

TradeFair (the British equivalent of HedgeStreet) has opened 2 sets of prediction markets on UK and US politics.

Posted on September 1, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Posted in Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged betting exchange, event derivative exchange, event derivative markets, event derivatives, political elections, political elections prediction markets, political prediction markets, prediction exchange, prediction markets, TradeFair | Leave a comment

This social media graph is all bullshit. They put HubDub under “crowdsourced content” (like Digg), because that’s the P.R. bullshit that Nigel Eccles sent out at inception to gullible journalists and credulous bloggers. As a matter of fact, if you look closely at the recent evolutions of the play-money prediction exchange HubDub, the social networking component (think FaceBook) is where the real focus is on.

Posted on August 13, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, The Internet | Tagged conversation prism, event derivative markets, event derivatives, play-money prediction exchange, play-money prediction markets, prediction exchange, prediction markets, social media, social media graph, social networking | Leave a comment

OPEN-SOURCE PREDICTION EXCHANGE: How Smarkets is going to eat BetFair’s lunch —well, they hope.

Posted on June 19, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

TechCrunch UK Thereâ€™s an interesting twist – they plan to offer an open API for people to develop their own betting applications and use the Smarkets infrastructure. Their idea is this: users donâ€™t need knowledge of odds or experience. Itâ€™s … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Information Technology, Software | Tagged API, BetFair, betting applications, betting exchange, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Hunter, Jason Trost, open-source software, prediction exchange, prediction markets, Smarkets, TradeSports, United Kingdom, web framework | 1 Comment

BetFair makes the frontpage of the New York Times –as the White Knight of sports. — Note that the term “prediction markets” is never pronounced. — TradeSports is not mentioned, but the last paragraph of the article suggests that all Internet sports betting should be legal and regulated.

Posted on May 24, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Previously: BetFair’s Mark Davies on sports betting and the fight against corruption -

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Betting, Exchanges & Markets, Regulations | Tagged BetFair, Betting, betting exchange, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Internet sports betting, Mark Davies, match-fixing scandals, prediction exchange, prediction markets, Regulations, Sports, sports betting, sports corruption, the New York Times, TradeSports | 1 Comment

ABC 20/20 — A good (but servile) explainer on the wisdom of crowds and the prediction markets

Posted on May 16, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

ABC 20/20 featuring InTrade – (May 9, 2008) Foretelling The Future: Online Prediction Markets — (4 pages in all) ABC video YouTube video – Not a single word about InTrade-TradeSports fucking up its traders during the North Korea Missile episode. … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged ABC, ABC 20/20, analyst, betting markets, Collective Intelligence, Emile Servan-Schreiber, Eric Zitzewitz, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event futures markets, InTrade, James Surowiecki, John Delaney, Justin Wolfers, online prediction markets, prediction exchange, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, The Wisdom Of Crowds, ultimate leader, wisdom of crowds, YouTube | 1 Comment

NEWS FROM DOWN UNDER: A political prediction exchange for New Zealand

Posted on May 7, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Posted in Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged betting exchange, event derivative exchange, event futures exchange, New Zealand, political elections, political stockmarket, Politics, prediction exchange, Qi-Shan Lim, University of Auckland | 4 Comments

InTrade’s Software Glitch? – [See Jason Ruspini's comment, at the bottom of the post.]

Posted on May 3, 2008 by Guest Author

Here is a beauty from InTrade, 12 hours ago: Bids and Asks at the same price. Looks like the ‘ol InTrade price-matching mechanism is working great. Signed: Deep Throat – - Editor’s Note: Here’s a new screen shot, taken this … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Software | Tagged bid-ask prices, Editor, event derivative markets, event derivatives, glitch, InTrade, Jason Ruspini, Market Trading, prediction exchange, prediction markets, same trader, software glitch, US' Easter | 3 Comments

BetFair is as innocent as a lamb… but their P.R. people can’t tell you that at this time. Here’s why.

Posted on March 28, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Dear Midas Oracle readers, Besides the facts about BetFair Malta’s combo market maker operating on the multiples (which Midas Oracle informed you about back in January 2007), you may have heard the rumor that BetFair UK (in HammerSmith, London) … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Ethics, Exchanges & Markets, Prediction Journalism | Tagged Benjamin Franklin, BetFair, BetFair Malta, betting exchange, combo market maker, Editor, event derivative markets, event derivatives, freedom of speech, human market makers, Internet marketing approach, London, multiples, Open Media, prediction exchange, prediction markets, rumors, site leads, United Kingdom, Voltaire, web forum, web forums | 20 Comments

Smarkets is a Web-based, person-to-person betting exchange platform built on the fusion of social networking and trading technology.

Posted on March 28, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Still-in-beta Smarkets blog (the “about” page): Smarkets is a web-based, person-to-person betting exchange platform built on the fusion of social networking and trading technology. Unlike traditional methods of betting, online betting exchanges remove the bookmaker by allowing users to bet … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged betting exchange, CEO / Co-founder, Chicago, corporate banking experience, CTO / Co-founder, Descipher, developed advanced high-performance distributed applications, event derivative exchange, event futures exchange, financial products, former successful equities trader, Hunter, Hunter Morris, Jason Trost, London, Northwestern University, physician, prediction exchange, prediction markets, private investor, Smarkets, social networking, Software, software architect, Trader, UBS, web users, Wolverine Trading | Leave a comment

Inkling Markets and NewsFutures should merge. Or play-money InTrade should let users create their own event derivative(s). Or maybe TradeFair should do it. Or Zocalo should be based on the Web. Or Greg Knaddison should pop out of his Colorado cave with something great.

Posted on January 15, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Whatever. So we could have at least one user-managed, CDA-powered , play-money prediction exchange. (With some MSR-inspired automated market maker, maybe.) And, by the same token, thousands of little Gibersons who will create and expire new event derivatives. I got … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets | Tagged CDA, Colorado, Greg Knaddison, prediction exchange, user-managed | 4 Comments

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