Tag Archives: polls
So much for Prof Panos and his data religion
People answer bullshit when polled by Prof Panos and other stats collectors.
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Flawed New Hampshire polls = Non-accurate New Hampshire prediction markets
The most comprehensive analysis ever conducted of presidential primary polls:
“a handful of methodological missteps and miscalculations combined to undermine the accuracy of predictions about presidential primary winners in New Hampshire and three other states.”
Via Mister the Great Research Scientist David Pennock –who is an indispensable element of the field of prediction markets.
As I blogged many [...]
Nate Silver of FiveThirtYeight.com on “The Interview Show” —recorded November 5th, 2008
Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com on “The Interview Show,” recorded November 5th, 2008:
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Nate Silver on November 3rd, 2008:
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Nate Silver on August 21, 2008:
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Damped polls are superior to prediction markets as election predictors.
Are Political Markets Really Superior to Polls as Election Predictors? – (PDF file) – by Chris Wlezien and Robert Erikson – 2007
Abstract
Election markets have been praised for their ability to forecast election outcomes, and to forecast better than trial-heat polls. This paper challenges that optimistic assessment of election markets, based on an analysis of Iowa [...]
Damped polls outperform prediction markets.
Forecasting Principles:
Damping polls
Evidence from the literature shows that polls, in particular early in the campaign, are not reliable in predicting election outcomes but tend to overestimate the extent to which a candidate leads. To deal with these uncertainties, we added a damping factor to the RCP poll average. Damping is used to make forecasts more [...]
The very last line of the Erikson–Wlezien paper
Are Political Markets Really Superior to Polls as Election Predictors? – PDF file
For now, our results suggest the need for much more caution and less naïve cheerleading about election markets on the part of prediction market advocates.
Previously: The truth about prediction markets
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The hype is over. The party is over.
With respect to the 2008 US presidential elections, the prediction markets just mirrored the polls (and took a losing bet on Missouri). In hindsight, most of the media coverage about prediction markets prior to November 4, 2008, was pure hype —based on the luck that InTrade got in the 2004 US presidential elections.
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Previously
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Prediction markets compute facts and expertise quicker that the mass media do.
Political prediction markets react (with a small delay) to political polls —just like the political experts and the mass media do, too. Hence, in order to discover their true social utility, the prediction markets (which are tools of intelligence) should not be compared to the polls (which are just facts) but to the similar meta [...]
Prediction markets feed on facts and expertise.
Via Yahoo! research scientist David Pennock of Odd Head and YooPick, the dear honorable Duncan Watts:
In part because of disappointing findings such as this, an increasingly popular substitute for expert opinions are so-called “prediction markets,” in which individuals buy and sell contracts on various outcomes, such as football game point spreads or presidential elections. The [...]
Are they afraid?
Bo Cowgill and Midas Oracle are the only media to have published about the Lee–Moretti paper.
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Learning in Investment Decisions: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Polls – (PDF file) – David S. Lee and Enrico Moretti – 2008-12-XX
In this paper, we explore how polls and prediction markets interact in the context of the 2008 U.S. Presidential [...]
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