Tag Archives: polls

New Hampshire prediction markets screwed up political forecasting in 2008. Will they be right this time? — [CHARTS]

Posted on January 10, 2012 by Chris F. Masse

The political prediction markets got the Democratic race wrong in New Hampshire, last time. More here. – New Hampshire – The Democrats – The Hillary Clinton event derivative was expired to 100. – New Hampshire – The Republicans – The … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged 2008 New Hampshire Presidential Primary, 2008 US presidential elections, accuracy, Barack Obama, betting markets, Collective Intelligence, democrats, event derivative markets, event derivatives, events, Hillary Clinton, idea futures, indicators, John McCain, New Hampshire, polls, prediction markets, US presidential elections, US primaries, wisdom of crowds | 1 Comment

US entrepreneurs pray and meditate more than non-entrepreneurs. — [SURVEY]

Posted on September 21, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Most Americans believe that God has a plan for them. PDF file.

Posted in Entrepreneurship, Psychology, The Global Economy | Tagged Business, destiny, economy, entrepreneurs, Entrepreneurship, faith, fate, God, paper, papers, poll, polls, Psychology, religion, religiosity, survey, surveys, US economy, US entrepreneurs, work | Leave a comment

Paul Hewitt on the usefulness of the prediction markets — [ANALYSIS]

Posted on August 2, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Paul Hewitt: I don’t think there is any question that the usefulness of prediction markets has been exaggerated. We don’t hear much from James Surowiecki anymore. So a few of those polled probably indicated that he doesn’t exaggerate the usefulness … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, derivatives, Economics, economics bloggers, economists, event derivative markets, event derivatives, James Surowiecki, Justin Wolfers, Kauffman Foundation, poll, polls, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, survey, surveys, usefulness, usefulness of prediction markets | Leave a comment

Have Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers and James Surowiecki been exaggerating the usefulness of the prediction markets? — [SURVEY RESULT]

Posted on July 28, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Here’s the result of the Kauffman Foundation poll: – UPDATE: Here’s an example (among many) of the grave problems with prediction markets, which are unreported by the media. – PDF document. – - – - – - – - – … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Economics, Exchanges & Markets, The Global Economy | Tagged betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, derivatives, Economics, economics bloggers, economists, event derivative markets, event derivatives, James Surowiecki, Justin Wolfers, Kauffman Foundation, poll, polls, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, survey, surveys, usefulness, usefulness of prediction markets | 1 Comment

iPad stats – [REPORT]

Posted on February 23, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Posted in Business, Information Technology, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Inventions & Innovations | Tagged Apple, Apple IPad, inforgraphic, iPad, polls, reports, surveys | Leave a comment

2011 Q1′s economic blogger survey – [POLL]

Posted on February 17, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Kauffman Foundation – PDF file.

Posted in The Global Economy | Tagged bloggers, blogs, economic bloggers, economy, Kauffman Foundation, opinion, opinions, Politics, polls, surveys, US economy, US politics | Leave a comment

NewsFutures’s post mortem on the French elections

Posted on April 19, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

PrediPol post-mortem analysis.

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged Collective Forecasting, France, French elections, French politics, NewsFutures, Politics, polls, prediction markets, PrediPol | Leave a comment

The relative advantage of prediction markets (over conventional means of forecasting, namely polls and statistical models) is remarkably… SMALL.

Posted on January 22, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Sharad Goel: In a new study, Daniel Reeves, Duncan Watts, Dave Pennock and I compare the performance of prediction markets to conventional means of forecasting, namely polls and statistical models. Examining thousands of sporting and movie events, we find that … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Market Efficiency), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged BetFair, betting markets, Collective Forecasting, event derivative markets, forecasting, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, models, polls, prediction markets, Sports, statistical models, statistics, stats | Leave a comment

One hundred poll respondents lied to InTrade.

Posted on September 11, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

3. What would you likely use as an alternative if InTrade.com were no longer available? I probably wouldnâ€™t use an alternative. –> 65% It is a lie. They would use BetFair USA instead —or another service. Come on. And Chris … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce | Tagged BetFair, BetFair USA, Chris Masse, InTrade, InTrade poll, John Delaney, Midas Oracle, poll, polls | 4 Comments

Professor Christopher Wlezien on his research on how election prediction markets compare to polls.

Posted on September 2, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Professor Christopher Wlezien on his research on how election prediction markets compare to polls: Markets vs. Polls as Predictors: An Historical Assessment of US Presidential Elections – (PDF file) – by Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Data), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged accuracy, Christopher Wlezien, election prediction markets, polls, prediction markets, Robert Erikson, Robert S. Erikson | 16 Comments

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