Chicago wont have the Olympics in 2016.

IOC

The Chicago candidacy, which was favored by the prediction markets (and bettors like Ben Shannon), is the one that fared the worst.

I TOLD YOU SO:

&#8220-Will Chicago get the Olympics? Dona€™t bet on it. Too risky.&#8220-

The prediction markets are not able to forecast which country will get the Olympics. The IOC is a close aristocratic group that does not leak information. Hence, it is not possible to aggregate information.

Once again, Ben Shannon made a very bad bet. He should read Midas Oracle more often &#8212-if he wants to avoid personal bankruptcy.

– Once again, we see that the P.R. agents of InTrade and BetFair (who both bragged about being able to predict Chicago) were overselling.

BetFair&#8217-s event derivative prices (on the far right of the chart, you can see that the price went down to zero):

chicago-olympics-betfair

InTrade&#8217-s event derivative prices (on the far right of the chart, you can see that the price went down to zero):

chicago-olympics-intrade

– HubDub&#8217-s event derivative prices:

Who will recieve the winning bid to host the 2016 Olympics?

OLYMPIC MEDALS: The Los Angeles Times cites HubDub -but not BetFair, TradeSports, NewsFutures, or YooPick.

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Los Angeles Times

Could it be because the journalist had googled &#8220-Olympics&#8221- for his/her research?

HubDub is the only prediction exchange whose prediction market webpages are indexed well by Google.

SEO is key for marketing and P.R., folks &#8212-you see the evidence under your very nose with HubDub and the Olympics.

Predict Olympic medal counts on YooPick.

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Cross posted from Oddhead Blog.

We&#8217-ve just added a new feature to Yoopick especially for Frenchmen Chris and Emile and citizens of nineteen other countries to place their swagor* on how many medals their country will win.

We&#8217-ve argued that the Yoopick interface is useful for predicting almost any kind of number, and since medal count is indeed a number, we thought we&#8217-d give it a try.

Besides, Lance told us it would be a good idea.

Sign up, play, enjoy, and don’t forget to tell us what you think!

Thanks,
Sharad Goel
David Pennock
Dan Reeves

* Scientific wild-ass guess, on record

Select

Yoopick: Olympic medal count: Select

Make pick

Yoopick: Olympic medal count: France: Make pick

OLYMPICS BETTING: BetFair is fun, while InTrade is boring like hell -and TradeSports, inexistent.

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BetFair&#8217-s prediction markets, on which country will get the most medals &#8212-it&#8217-s China, but the U.S. is not far behind.

InTrade&#8217-s prediction markets, on the boring boycott thing.

TradeSports is AWOL.

A proposal: Will the Olympics get derailed by air pollution?

99 days to go!

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • The CFTC is going to close the comments in 11 days. We have 11 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges, and counter the evil petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
  • The definitive proof that FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (like BetFair and InTrade) are the best organizers of socially valuable prediction markets (like those on global warming and climate change).
  • Fairness Doctrine prediction markets
  • 2 MILLION TRADES LATER: Inkling’s play-money prediction markets are accurate —too.
  • Web Forums on Prediction Markets
  • Jason Ruspini will answer SOME of these CFTC questions. — 12 days left, Jason.
  • QUIZZ OF THE DAY: Which blog is the most open minded?