Recent ‘-News of the World’- Article
Betfair Customer Services 29 Jun 13:13
We have been contacted by several customers in relation to an article in Sunday’s News of the World. We would like to make it clear that Betfair was not asked to comment on, or validate any aspect of, the article ahead of publication.
Although we cannot comment on the activities of any specific customer, some facts which may be relevant to some of the claims made in the article include:
The biggest winner in the relevant Britain’s Got Talent market (Susan Boyle winner –- Yes/No) won less than ?3,000.
No Betfair customer won ?1.5 million or anything even vaguely approaching that amount betting on the Champion Hurdle.
No Betfair customer won ?500,000 or anything even vaguely approaching that amount laying Monsieur Chevalier at Royal Ascot.
The figures shown in the account statement screenshot in the News Of the World do not reconcile to any Betfair account.
The monies present in a Betfair account are obviously no indicator of the sums won or lost on the account.
We would encourage customers to be wary of the claims of anyone purporting to have a profitable system or strategy.
We would encourage customers to retain a healthy degree of scepticism toward any claims made in the press which are not validated by Betfair.
My yesterday’-s post about the Obama–-Clinton prediction markets was the most popular Midas Oracle story of that Monday. Hummmm…- No idea why…- I was not helped by Google Search or by an external blogger. Sounds like our Midas Oracle web readers and feed subscribers liked it …- for some reasons I have yet to discover fully.
- I’-m minding a grand “-Midas Oracle Project“-, and you can join it.
- Emile believes that prediction markets represent “-the future of journalism“-. I am trying to mind, specifically, what form could take the “-prediction market journalism“-.
- The idea is this: We need to put the charts of prediction markets inside news stories, and those stories should incorporate the meaning of the probability fluctuations (a la Justin Wolfers).
- If we stay in our armchairs, nothing will happen, because most of the old-school journalists and bloggers don’-t think much of the prediction markets. The prediction market infiltration in the Mediasphere and the Blogosphere is like a weak stream, right now. I don’-t have the patience to wait until “-2020″-.
- I don’-t think that much will come out of the prediction exchanges. The BetFair blog and the InTrade newsletter are 2 pieces of crap —-they compete in content quality with the Mongolian edition of the News Of The World.
- If you look at the evolution of the media, you see that the old-school, dead-tree publications are slowly dying, and are replaced by professional blog networks —-look especially in the IT industry, with TechCrunch, etc. What you have is writers who publish only for the Web, and who fill a vertical niche. (And, the Washington Post is now publishing content from…- guess who.)
- Needless to say, prediction market journalism is costly. Now, go directly to point #8, because that’-s where the beef is.
- Yes, I have “-heard of Christmas”- , and I understand Robin Hanson’-s reasoning. [*] That’-s where my funding idea lays. The idea is to think hard about who “-might actually be willing to pay”-. I am thinking of a class or organizations that “-might actually be willing to pay”-, provided 2 things. Number one, that I operate a certain twist on my form of prediction market journalism. Number two, that this project becomes the project of many prediction market people, or, better, of the whole prediction market industry —-not just Chris Masse’-s one. Those 2 things are essential.
- So, Emile, wanna join the “-Midas Oracle Project“-?
Chris, you’ve heard of Christmas I presume. Many people circulate lists of items they might like for Christmas. If you did, would you circulate a list of million franc/dollar gift ideas for people to give you? Would you consider that list more honest/logical than a list of gifts of roughly the price you think others might actually be willing to pay?