Tag Archives: Montana

EXPIRATIONS: Puerto Rico, South Dakota, and Montana

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 4, 2008 — Leave a Comment

Expired prediction markets
InTrade
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Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, Democratic, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, Politics, Porto Rico, prediction markets, Puerto Rico, South Dakota, US elections, US politics, USA presidential elections

75,000 people turned out to hear Barack Obama at Waterfront Park, Portland, Oregon, U.S.A.

Written by Chris F. Masse on May 19, 2008 — 2 Comments

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Oregon’s Democratic Primary
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InTrade

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BetFair

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Kentucky’s Democratic Primary
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InTrade

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BetFair

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NewsFutures
Some delegates from FL or MI will be seated at the Democratic Convention.

© NewsFutures
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First look at individual states for the 2008 US presidential elections
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2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Individual

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2008 US Presidential Elections

Source: Dynamic, compound prediction market charts from InTrade
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Next US President

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Winning Party

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Female President?

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Democratic Candidate

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Republican Candidate

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Source: [...]

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, Democratic candidate, Democratic party, democrats, Florida, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, Kentucky, meta forecasting tools, NewsFutures, Oregon, Politics, Portland, prediction market journalism, prediction markets, President, Republican candidate, United States, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, USD, Waterfront Park, web links, Will Be Democratic, Winning Party

Open-Source Blogging Software

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 5, 2007 — 2 Comments

Read & Write Web (excellent blog name, by the way ):
To understand why Six Apart is releasing an open source version of Movable Type, we need to briefly revisit its past. Movable Type was once the darling of the blogosphere, especially from its original launch in 2001 to about 2004 (when licensing issues [...]

Posted in Information Technology | Also tagged open-source blogging software, social media platform

The Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets: Economic and Financial Implications

Written by Chris F. Masse on April 14, 2007 — 1 Comment

The Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets: Economic and Financial Implications – University of California at Riverside, Palm Desert, California, U.S.A. – 2007-05-10~22
Gambling: Design and Implementation 1
- “An Examination of the Determinants of Biased Behaviour in a Market for State Contingent Claims” Professor Johnnie Johnson, Southampton University Professor Alistair Bruce, University of Nottingham Jiejun Yu, [...]

Posted in Events & Meetings | Also tagged Albert N. Link, Alexander Koch, Alistair Bruce, Andrew Economopoulos, Andrew Grant, Andrew Weinbach, Andy Weinbach, Athens University of Economics and Business, Avichai Snir, Bar Ilan University, Bob Erikson, Boston College, Bruno Deschamps, California, Chad D. Cotti, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Coastal Carolina University, College of the Holy Cross, Columbia, Columbia University, Cross Border, Dartmouth College, David Grant, David Johnstone, David Paton, David Peel, Don Imus, Donald Siegel, Douglas Walker, Drew B. Winters, Embedded Prediction, Eric Zitzewitz, Feng Zhou, George Mason University, Georgia, Georgia College, Greensboro, Greg Durham, Hebrew University, Herbert Walther, Ian McHale, Internet betting, Iowa, Iraq, Jeremy Ko, John Lynham, John Pierson, John T. Scott, Johnnie Johnson, Justin Wolfers, Kelly Probability Scoring, Lancaster University, Leighton Vaughan-Williams, Loreto Llorente, Macau, Marshall Gramm, Mike Wenz, Ming-Chien Sung, National Football League, New York, New York University, North Carolina, Norwegian School of Economics, Nottingham Trent University, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State University, Ole Jakob Bergfjord, Orly Sade, Palm Desert, Pennsylvania, Philip O'Connor, prediction markets, Professor, Ramon DeGennaro, Raphael Markellos, Raymond So, Rhodes College, Ricard Gil, Ricardo Siu, Richard McGowan, Riverside, Robin Hanson, Rodney J. Paul, Ron Mau, Royal Holloway College, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Salford University, Santa Barbara, Santa Cruz, Schnytzer, Shannon Neibergs, South Carolina, Southampton, Southampton University, St. Bonaventure University, Stanford University, Stefan Luckner, Stefan Winter, Steve Levitt, Sydney Professor David, Tennessee, tennis, Texas, Texas Tech University, Tom Gruca, United Kingdom, United States, Universidad Pública de Navarra, University of Bath, University of Birmingham, University of California, University of Chicago, University of Economics, University of Iowa, University of Karlsruhe, University of Kent, University of London, University of Macau, University of North Carolina at Greensboro, University of Nottingham, University of Nottingham Jiejun Yu, University of Pennsylvania, University of South Carolina, University of Sydney, University of Tennessee, University of Waikato, University of Waikato TBA, University of Westminster, Ursinus College, Victor Matheson, Washington, Washington State University, Western Carolina University, William H. Dare, William Ziemba, Winona State University, World Cup, Yahoo!

John Delaney – InTrade – US Politics – Fox News – YouTube

Written by Chris F. Masse on March 10, 2007 — Leave a Comment

John Delaney – InTrade – US Politics – Fox News – YouTube – 2007-02-27
Very good explainer.
John Delaney mentions Justin Wolfers and Robin Hanson. It could be that the papers he refers about were written by the Iowa Electronic Markets scholars, instead. (I could be damn wrong, possibly.)
As for the metaphor with the NYSE, I disagree [...]

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged John Delaney, Justin Wolfers, prediction exchange executive, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, United States, Virginia, YouTube

And the winner is… LANCE FORTNOW.

Written by Chris F. Masse on January 5, 2007 — 3 Comments

Page Titles – Uniq. Views – Pageviews – [since blog inception, according to Google Analytics]

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Midas Oracle – 9,227 – 16,008
Midas Oracle » Blog Archive » “If Virginia and Montana go democratic then the markets predicted every race correctly.” – 1,195 – 1,492
Midas Oracle » About – 924 – 1,317
Midas Oracle » [...]

Posted in Midas Oracle Statistics | Also tagged Alex Forshaw, Caveat Bettor, Google, Internet Gambling Prohibition, Lance Fortnow, Pascal, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, TradeSports trader, Virginia, Yahoo!

REPLY–Bo Cowgill (“Color me perplexed…”)

Written by Alex Forshaw on December 2, 2006 — Leave a Comment

Bo “the Google guy” Cowgill unleashes a counter-broadside:
COLOR ME PERPLEXED by Alex Foreshaw’s [snarky sic] rant about this recent TechCentralStation article. Alex [believes] the article was an ideological, intellectually dishonest knee-jerk defense of free markets. Did we read the same article?
The article I read mentioned that there’s no way to know if TradeSports screwed up [...]

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry | Also tagged Alex Foreshaw, George Allen, Google, GOP senate, Harold Ford, Jim Talent, John Tester, Lance Fortnow, Missouri, Republican Party, Senate, USD, Virginia

TechCentralStation grasps for one too many “wisdom of crowds” straws.

Written by Alex Forshaw on November 29, 2006 — 2 Comments

The free-market cheerleaders of TechCentralStation are only the latest media to insist, in defiance of all available evidence, that the prediction markets (Tradesports) called the Senate contest as correctly as intuition could justify, even though it was still completely wrong. As I have said before, I love free markets, and I think they are the [...]

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry | Also tagged David Pennock, Missouri, Senate, Virginia

Barry Ritholtz thinks that, maybe, the prediction markets died on Election Day 2006.

Written by Chris F. Masse on November 9, 2006 — 2 Comments

Our good friend Barry Ritholtz is quick to draw funest conclusions:
While the Political futures got the House right, it appears they were wildly wrong about the Senate. That would be quite a blow to these thinly traded, tiny markets. And of all the things they tend to get right, elections are their forte. If [...]

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged Barry Ritholtz, Lance Fortnow, Professor, Republican Party, Senate, So Fast, United States Senate, Virginia, Wall Street

OPEN LETTER TO THE COMMENTERS OF THE MARGINAL REVOLUTION BLOG

Written by Chris F. Masse on November 8, 2006 — 1 Comment

Hello Professor Tyler Cowen and all the commenters,
#1. Professor Lance Fortnow made a specific point: taken one day before Election Day, the TradeSports’s prediction markets of the individual races for the US Senate were accurate (provided that Virginia and Montana go democratic).
#2. Professor Lance Fortnow DID NOT SAY that the TradeSports’s prediction market for the [...]

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged Chris F. Masse, Chris Masse, Lance Fortnow, Professor, United States Senate, Virginia

Tag Archives: Montana

EXPIRATIONS: Puerto Rico, South Dakota, and Montana

75,000 people turned out to hear Barack Obama at Waterfront Park, Portland, Oregon, U.S.A.

The Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets: Economic and Financial Implications

John Delaney – InTrade – US Politics – Fox News – YouTube

And the winner is… LANCE FORTNOW.

REPLY–Bo Cowgill (“Color me perplexed…”)

TechCentralStation grasps for one too many “wisdom of crowds” straws.

Barry Ritholtz thinks that, maybe, the prediction markets died on Election Day 2006.

OPEN LETTER TO THE COMMENTERS OF THE MARGINAL REVOLUTION BLOG

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