Michael Giberson | Midas Oracle .ORG

A good résumé, in the field of prediction markets, should mention and link to “Midas Oracle”, of course. You, too, could be part of the gang. Join us today.

Chris F. Masse July 18th, 2008

Last year, nobody would give the first fig about a “Michael Giberson”. He was insignificant. Now, with the orbital price of oil, Mike becomes hot, all of the sudden. I hope he’ll mind some energy prediction markets, one day, when he has time.

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How to join Midas Oracle and how to blog with us here…

How to connect with Midas Oracle on LinkedIn…

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Tags: LinkedIn, Michael Giberson, Midas Oracle, Midas Oracle Network

The Absence of Teams In Production of Blog Journalism

Chris F. Masse April 19th, 2008

Justin Wolfers at Freakonomics published the link to an interesting paper, “The Increasing Dominance of Teams in Production of Knowledge” [PDF file]:

The Increasing Dominance of Teams in Production of Knowledge

We have used 19.9 million papers over 5 decades and 2.1 million patents to demonstrate that teams increasingly dominate solo authors in the production of knowledge. Research is increasingly done in teams across nearly all fields. Teams typically produce more frequently cited research than individuals do, and this advantage has been increasing over time. Teams now also produce the exceptionally high-impact research, even where that distinction was once the domain of solo authors. These results are detailed for sciences and engineering, social sciences, arts and humanities, and patents, suggesting that the process of knowledge creation has fundamentally changed.

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Currently, any group blog (like Freakonomics or Midas Oracle) is in fact an aggregation of solo blogs —in the example above, Justin Wolfers wrote his blog post without the assistance of Steve Levitt (just like I’m writing this present blog post without the direct supervision of our Scientific Advisory Board chief Michael Giberson).

In the future, I foresee a process where a blog post could be written by at least 2 bloggers (i.e., 2 co-authors). I have looked into this issue, and concluded that WordPress is not yet ready for that. But it’s coming… It’s coming… Push… Push…

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Technical Note on WordPress 2.5:

I regret that, in WordPress 2.5, it’s now impossible to sort post archives by blog author. WordPress is written by young white males who don’t have any experience with group blogs and blog communities.
The usability bozos who overhauled the WordPress administration menus decided that you now have to click on a post/comment title to edit it —thus breaking the Web convention which says that you click on a weblink to open it, not to edit it. … I’m not the only one having trouble with this.

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Tags: blog, bloggers, blogging, co-authors, co-bloggers, journalism, Justin Wolfers, knowledge production, Michael Giberson, Scientific Advisory Board, Steve Levitt, WordPress

Robin Hanson wants to rule the world —just as CEOs and heads of states do for a living.

Chris F. Masse March 27th, 2008

Our Master Of All Universes moans that the Free World’s private and public decision makers rarely or never ask him for advice —even though he sits on many “Boards Of Advisors” (like NewsFutures‘ one), which are, by definition, set up to provide advice —or so he thought, at inception. How come CEOs and heads of states are not imploring him for advice to help them run the word, he asks. He blogs that advisers are probably paid primarily for the prestige value that they lend to the company.

Which leads me to realize that I pay zero French franc for having economist Michael Giberson on our Scientific Advisory Board, which is quite about what his prestige is worth in the field of prediction markets, as of today. That might change in the future, though —especially if I continue to flatter him publicly in posts like this present one. He might suffer from ego inflation and charge me for using his so-called “prestige value”. All economists, be damned. They are as greedy as the people they study.

Tags: Boards Of Advisor, economists, Humor, Michael Giberson, Midas Oracle, NewsFutures, prestige value, Robin Hanson

Tss… Tss… Surely, you are joking Doctor Giberson.

Chris F. Masse February 15th, 2008

His true face pic:

Michael Giberson

Michael Giberson at Midas Oracle

Inkling Markets introduces some “Web 2.0″ functionalities to the traders’ profile page…

How long before InTrade-TradeSports and BetFair-TradeFair introduce trader profiles?…

Tags: Inkling, inkling markets, Michael Giberson, Mike Giberson, trader profile, Web 2.0

Exchanges & Markets , People , Software
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Albert Einstein, Chairman of the Midas Oracle Advisory Board

Chris F. Masse February 12th, 2008

Please, right-click on the picture, and open the link in another browser tab.

Tags: Advisory Board, Albert Einstein, Michael Giberson, Midas Oracle

MENTAL HEALTH EXPERTS: INKLING HOBBY IS GOOD FOR ENERGY ECONOMIST MICHAEL GIBERSON.

Chris F. Masse December 2nd, 2007

The New York Times:

Carol Kauffman, an assistant clinical professor at Harvard Medical School: “When you’re really engaged in a hobby you love, you lose your sense of time and enter what’s called a flow state, and that restores your mind and energy.” [...] “That positive emotion builds your cognitive and social skills. If you follow your bliss [*] for a little while, it really gives you a surge of energy.”

Dr. Gabriela Corá, a psychiatrist who is managing partner of the Florida Neuroscience Center and president of Executive Health and Wealth Institute: “Making time for enjoyable activities stimulates parts of the brain associated with creative and positive thinking. You become emotionally and intellectually more motivated.”

Gail McMeekin, a psychotherapist and owner of Creative Success: “Any time you take a break from routine, you develop new ways of thinking”.[...] “You have to do some market research first and make sure you could earn a living doing your hobby. You also take the risk that making your hobby your career [*] will take all the fun out of it.”

[*] His “bliss” right now is to chronicle the Writers Guild America’s 2007 strike on Inkling Markets and Midas Oracle .COM.

[**] Told him 10 times!!!!!!!

Michael Giberson

RECOMMENDED READING: RGGI auction design flaw: Separate sealed-bid auctions for substitute goods poses needless risks for bidders - by Michael Giberson (at Knowledge Problem)

“RGGI” is short for the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (North East and Mid-Atlantic). They want to create a multi-state cap-and-trade program with a market-based emissions trading system. Economist Michael Giberson ~~has found~~ [links to Crampton's paper that highlights] “one serious flaw that threatens the efficiency of the auction: they proposed to auction two goods which are asymmetric substitutes in separate, simultaneous sealed bid auctions.”

Mike, are there lessons here to learn when it comes to prediction market designs?

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Psstt… The best sentence that Mike has ever told me is this one (from memory):