Tag Archives: market scoring rule

Emile Servan-Schreiber’s Jedi mind tricks didn’t work on Nigel Eccles.

The conversation ended up on a draw. Robin Hanson was AWOL.

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WORLD’S MOST EXPERIENCED PREDICTION MARKET PRACTITIONER CASTS A DOUBT ON THE VALIDITY OF MSR, IN USE IN MOST PUBLIC PLAY-MONEY PREDICTION EXCHANGES AND IN MOST ENTERPRISE PREDICTION EXCHANGES.

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchange & Market Designs, Exchanges & Markets, Mechanism Designs, Midas Oracle Archives, Software | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Since YooPick opened their door, Midas Oracle has been getting, daily, 2 or 3 dozens referrals from FaceBook.

I understand that YooPick is a FaceBook application, but I’d like to know what these people are talking about, and in what context they link to Midas Oracle, and what they expect to find out on Midas Oracle when they … Continue reading

Posted in Exchange & Market Designs, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Midas Oracle Network, Midas Oracle Statistics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

HOW TO DESTROY INTRADE, TRADESPORTS AND BETFAIR: a betting application for FaceBook

If US laws were gambling compatible, would a FaceBook betting application solve the chicken-and-egg problem that any brand-new prediction exchange is facing? (Short sellers will come to the exchange only if there are enough backers, who will come only if … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Exchange & Market Designs, Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Inventions & Innovations, Mechanism Designs | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Grave problem with MSR that Robin Hanson and/or exchange executives should address

When there’re few trades (in this case, only 3), the last price/probability is too much dependent on the initial price set up by the exchange manager. – Nigel, you f***ed it up. I want your apology letter posted on Midas … Continue reading

Posted in Exchange & Market Designs, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Mechanism Designs | Tagged , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

STRAIGHT FROM THE DOUBLESPEAK DEPARTMENT: NewsFutures CEO Emile Servan-Schreiber, well known to chase tirelessly the Infidels who dare calling “prediction markets” their damn polling system, is eager to sell the confusion to his clients and whomever would listen.

Emile’s made up a phrase that means nothing (except in his fertile imagination), “a proprietary prediction market variant“ —sounds like a red herring to me. Unlike Consensus Point, Inkling Markets and Xpree, NewsFutures is the only prediction market software vendor … Continue reading

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With the multiples, BetFair takes the role of a bookmaker.

BetFair Help: What is multiples betting? Betfair offers multiples betting, also known as accumulator betting. You can combine a number of selections from different markets into one bet. Betfair allows multiples of between two and eight legs. A leg is … Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Betting, Exchanges & Markets, Market Makers (Human), Market Trading, Mechanism Designs | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

BetFair Multiples

BetFair Help: What is multiples betting? Betfair offers multiples betting, also known as accumulator betting. You can combine a number of selections from different markets into one bet. Betfair allows multiples of between two and eight legs. A leg is … Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Betting, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, Market Makers (Automated), Market Makers (Human), Market Trading, Mechanism Designs | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments