Tag Archives: Market Liquidity

BetFair’s Mark Davies (the Prince of betting exchange PR) has just gotten a second omelet in the face.

First, the Financial Times —and, now, Freakonomics. The journalistic rule should be that, if you cite one prediction exchange, you should cite the one that is the most liquid on the market you are writing about. For UK politics, it … Continue reading

Posted in Exchange & Market Management, Exchange Liquidity, Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

BRITISH CRETINERY: The Financial Times features the InTrade probabilities —not the BetFair ones.

This is really stupid. The decerebrated journalos at the FT chose to feature the illiquid, Ireland-based, un-regulated InTrade prediction markets instead of the very liquid, UK-based, regulated BetFair prediction markets on the next British congress. Makes no sense at all. … Continue reading

Posted in Collective Forecasting, Exchange Liquidity, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

What is the liquidity on InTrade’s financial prediction markets?

My dear honorable Carlos Graterol, I acknowledge you are a little InTrade fanboy, and that flies OK in my book. You say there are 3,000 daily transactions on the daily DJIA prediction markets. (It was much higher than that before … Continue reading

Posted in Exchange Liquidity, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity | Tagged , , , , , | 4 Comments

InTrade is exaggerating the usefulness of collective forecasting via prediction markets.

Look at the market liquidity —too insignificant to say anything: InTrade (like many other industry players and scholars) are exaggerating the usefulness of the prediction markets. When there is no liquidity, just keep your mouth shut. Wait until the market … Continue reading

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BetFair traders are getting ready for the BOOM.

BetFair: [...] we’ll be enabling the new matching process on soccer match odds markets, tennis match odds markets and greyhound win markets taking place on the UK exchange shortly. – Previously: BetFair’s new bet-matching logic…. (endorsed by Giberson International Incorporated). … Continue reading

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How BetFair stole Bastille Day from the French —and how Ed Murray became BetFair’s best friend (NOT A HOAX).

- Michael Giberson (professor of economics and chairman of our scientific advisory board): Actually, I would expect the change to improve liquidity, but the real surprise for Ed Murray is that other than his liquidity argument, I pretty much agree … Continue reading

Posted in Exchange & Market Designs, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Mechanism Designs | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 29 Comments

In a blow to the French, BetFair choose Bastille Day to premiere the revised version of the bet-matching logic of their prediction markets. — IMPROVEMENT MEANS BETTER LIQUIDITY FOR THEIR EVENT DERIVATIVE TRADERS.

- BetFair: Improvements to Betfair’s bet matching logic today, Monday 14th July: What’s changing? We’ve improved the code that matches bets. As well as matching backs against lays as we’ve always done, we’ll also try to match your bet against … Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Exchange & Market Designs, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, Market Liquidity, Mechanism Designs | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

Robin Hanson’s purity test is based on an absurd principle.

It’s not the motivation that is important to assess —it’s the liquidity that counts. The more trades, the better. Liquidity leads to statistically accurate probabilities predictions. Liquidity, liquidity, liquidity, doc. – Robin Hanson: One proposed distinguishing criteria includes the size … Continue reading

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Ubber finance blogger Barry Ritholtz believes in magic. He believes that, with more volumes on the event derivative markets, comes the Omniscience —capital “O”.

- Our good friend Barry Ritholtz.has persuaded himself that our real-money prediction markets suffer from an irremediable and fatal problem: liquidity on political event derivative markets is too thin for smart Wall Street people like him to take their market-generated … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Leading & Lagging Indicators | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

Harvard fella says prediction markets are doomed.

He bases his brilliant reasoning on “rumors” and total ignorance of the participation inequality law. Another academic fella who would be better off researching his topic before blogging on something he does not master. -

Posted in Analysis (Meta) | Tagged , , , , , , | 3 Comments