Tag Archives: manipulation
Joseph Stiglitz on Manipulation & Prediction Markets
The Oracle with Max Keiser – BBC World News – 30 January 2009
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Joseph Stiglitz on The Oracle with Max Keiser
Basically, Joseph Stiglitz said that the early academic-only prediction markets were rather good, but when they became more popular, they got being manipulated. Instead of asking for the evidence on that, Max Keiser nodded his approval. Well, to be fair, Max has always had this kind of heretic (for me) views —so there is nothing [...]
There is no manipulation going on in the InTrade political prediction markets.
- InTrade CEO John Delaney has conducted an investigation on the alleged manipulation. The suspicious moves in prices were in fact caused by the buying and selling made by an “institutional” trader (a hedge fund, I presume) who has been managing “certain risks” (hedging).
- Jason Ruspini, who wrote before this report came out, does believe [...]
Where is the post-election academic conference on prediction market performance?
Giberson asks, “Where is the 2008 post-election academic conference on prediction market performance going to be?”
Successful hedge fund executive spills the cranky juice on the head of the world’s #1 prediction market guru.
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QUESTION TO THE READERS: Could anyone guess what Nassim Nicholas Taleb would think of the prediction markets?
Fortune:
The idea that catastrophe can strike without warning does not seem particularly hard to understand. Why doesn’t Wall Street ever seem to allow for that possibility? And why doesn’t it learn from past catastrophes?
Let me blame business schools and the financial economics establishment – they have a vested interest in promoting models and devaluing common [...]
Mike Smithson says that one “impersonator” (that is, someone pretending to be Mike Smithson) published comments on the PoliticalBetting.com thread about the London political elections, giving false exit poll information, in order to influence the “betting prices” (which I understand, partially, at least, if not fully, as the BetFair and Betdaq prices).
Starting now, his blog will only publish comments from already approved commenters —comments from brand-new commenters will have to be manually approved.
We have had this procedure in place on Midas Oracle for some time, now.
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