Tag Archives: Keith Jacks Gamble

The best researchers on prediction markets

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 4, 2008 — Leave a Comment

CFM: Scholars
Check that CFM page for updates. And contact me so I can make additions to the list. (I’ll then re-publish that updated list on Midas Oracle.)
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Michael Abramowicz – Michael B. Abramowicz – (Law School, George Washington University, Washington, D.C., U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
Bernd H. Ankenbrand – Bernd Ankenbrand – (Lecturer, Witten/Herdecke [...]

Posted in People, Resources - References | Also tagged Adam, Adam Meirowitz, Administration, American Enterprise Institute, Anderson School, Andrew Leigh, Anita Elberse, Anthony M. Kwasnica, Arizona, Australia, Australian National University, Austria, Becker Center, Bernardo A. Huberman, Bernd H. Ankenbrand, Bernd Skiera, Bilkent University, British Columbia, Business, C. Schelling, - Thomas Schelling, California, California Institute of Technology, Canada, Centre Nationale, Change, Chapman University, Charles A. Holt, Charles F. Manski, Charles Holt, Charles R. Plott, Chicago, Chief Economist, Chris Hibbert, Collective Intelligence, College of Arts and Sciences, College of Business, College of Business Administration, College of Management, Connecticut, corporate prediction markets, D. Hamilton, - James Hamilton, D.C., Daniel Reeves, Dartmouth College, David M. Pennock, David Paton, David Porter, dean, Denmark, Department of Computer Science, Department of Economics, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Department of Insurance and Real Estate, Department of Politics, Director, Division of Humanity and Social Sciences, e-commerce, E. Litan, - Robert Litan, Economic Science Institute, Economics Department, Emile Servan-Schreiber, enterprise prediction markets, Eric Crampton, Eric W. Zitzewitz, Eric Zitzewitz, Erik Snowberg, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Executive Director, F. Manski, - Charles Manski, Florida, Forrest Nelson, France, Friedrich August Von Hayek, Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Gary William Flake, George Mason University, George R. Neumann, George Washington University, Gerhard Ortner, Germany, Goethe University, Google, Graduate School, H. Ankenbrand, - Bernd Ankenbrand, Hal R. Varian, Harvard Business School, Harvard University, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, HP Labs, IIT Center for Financial Markets, Illinois, Illinois Institute of Technology, information aggregation tool, Information Dynamics Lab, Information Services & Process Innovation Lab, internal prediction markets, Iowa, J. Arrow, - Kenneth Arrow, James Annan, James D. Hamilton, James Surowiecki, Japan, John O. Ledyard, Joyce Berg, Joyce E. Berg, Justin J. Wolfers, Justin Wolfers, Kansas, Kansas City, Kauffman Foundation, Kay-Yut Chen, Keith Gamble, Kellogg, Kenneth J. Arrow, Kentucky, L. Savage, - Sam Savage, Lance Fortnow, Lance J. Fortnow, law school, Lecturer, LEEPS, LEEPS laboratory, Leighton Vaughan-Williams, Leslie R. Fine, London Business School, Los Angeles, M. Kwasnica, - Anthony Kwasnica, M. Todd Henderson, manager, Marco Ottaviani, Martin Spann, Maryland, Massachusetts, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, McCormick School of Engineering, Michael Abramowicz, Michael B. Abramowicz, Michael Gorham, Michael P. Wellman, Michael Wellman, Michigan, Micro-Economic and Social Systems, Microsoft, Missouri, MIT, MIT Center, New Jersey, New York, New York City, New Zealand, Nicolas Lambert, North Carolina, Northwestern University, Norwestern University, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham University, Paris, Paul C. Tetlock, Paul Milgrom, Paul W. Rhode, Penn State University, Pennsylvania, Peter Norman Sorensen, Philip E. Tetlock, Philip Tetlock, prediction markets, Princeton University, Principal Research Scientist, private prediction markets, Professor, professors, R. Varian, - Hal Varian, Rahul Sami, Recherche Scientifique, Reg-Markets Center, Research School of Social Sciences, researchers, Richard Borghesi, Richard Roll, Robert E. Litan, Robert Forsythe, Robert J. Shiller, Robert W. Hahn, Robin D. Hanson, Robin Hanson, Russ Ray, Ryan Oprea, Sam L. Savage, San Diego, San Marcos, Santa Cruz, Sauder School of Business, Saul Levmore, scholars, School of Business, School of Information, School of Management, School of Public Affair, Sciences, Social Computing Lab, software architect, Stanford University, Steve Levitt, Steven D. Levitt, Steven Levitt, Stuart School of Business, technology, Texas, Texas State University, Thomas A. Rietz, Thomas C. Schelling, Thomas Gruca, Thomas S Gruca, Thomas W. Malone, Thomas W. Ross, Todd A. Proebsting, Todd Proebsting, Tom Malone, Tom W. Bell, Tracy Mullen, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States, University of Applied Sciences, University of Arizona, University of British Columbia, University of California at Los Angeles, University of Canterbury, University of Chicago, University of Copenhagen, University of Iowa, University of Kansas, University of Louisville, University of Maryland, University of Michigan, University of North Carolina, University of Passau, University of Pennsylvania, University of South Florida, University of Texas at Austin, University of Virginia, Vancouver, Vernon L. Smith, Vice President for Research and Policy, Virginia, W. Flake - Gary Flake, W. Rhode, - Paul Rhode, W. Ross, - Thomas Ross, Washington, Werner Antweiler, Wharton Business School, Witten, Witten/Herdecke University, Yahoo! Research Labs, Yale University, Zocalo Project Manager

Steve Levitt’s absurd take on blogging

Written by Chris F. Masse on August 9, 2007 — 2 Comments

There’s a video corner on the NYT/Freakonomics blog, and the first video posted there is from Steve Levitt who answers this question, “Why Blog?”. Basically, Steve Levitt says that he keeps his serious thoughts for his academic papers, and that his blog (which he views as a notepad) is the recipient for his less serious [...]

Posted in Information Technology, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce | Also tagged blog technology, Search Engines, Steve Levitt, Web system

Meet Keith Jacks Gamble.

Written by Chris F. Masse on May 16, 2007 — Leave a Comment

Keith Jacks Gamble

Posted in People

The Sim Exchange slightly TWEAKS its market-maker algorithm.

Written by Chris F. Masse on March 30, 2007 — Leave a Comment

The Sim Exchange (simExchange):
After observing a few months of trading on the simExchange, the NPC market makers have been tweaked to provide more consistent liquidity across stocks and smaller price differences between their orders. The effect of these changes should result in more activity in higher priced stocks, such as console stocks. Percent price changes [...]

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Makers (Automated) | Also tagged Advanced Trading, Brian Shiau, market-maker algorithm, prediction markets, Robin Hanson

The Sim Exchange: Stocks vs. Stock Derivatives (Futures & Options)

Written by Chris F. Masse on March 24, 2007 — 1 Comment

#1. SIM EXCHANGE’S Brian Shiau talks back to USABLE MARKETS’ Alex Kirtland… on the usability of the Sim Exchange.
Brian Shiau:
[...] I also believe gamers think of game sales in terms of lifetime sales. People remember that Halo 2 sold over 7 million copies. They don’t remember how many copies it sold between months 2 and [...]

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Market Contract Statements, Mechanism Designs | Also tagged Advanced Trading, Alex Kirtland, Brian Shiau, Player, prediction markets, Robin Hanson

Why should I join the simExchange?

Written by Chris F. Masse on March 13, 2007 — Leave a Comment

The Sim Exchange (a.k.a. the simExchange):
2. Ever wonder what the rest of the world really thinks about the games you already pre-ordered five months ago?
The simExchange lets you observe an aggregated forecast for how many copies a game will sell globally. Experts explain that market-driven systems can aggregate information from thousands of people, resulting in [...]

Posted in Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged Advanced Trading, Brian Shiau, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, single analyst

Keith Jacks Gamble: simExchange is somewhat OK, but will remained confined in play-money land.

Written by Chris F. Masse on March 10, 2007 — 2 Comments

Keith Jacks Gamble on Brian Shiau:
Thanks for the response. It’s interesting to see examples of product news stories and how your markets responded. These examples suggest that your game share prices are connected with sales. I’m not surprised and Keynes wouldn’t be either. His beauty contest view explains exactly why prices on the simExchange are [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements, Market Prices & Probabilities, Market Trading | Also tagged Advanced Trading, Brian Shiau, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, Wall Street

Justin Wolfers vs. Chris Hibbert

Written by Chris F. Masse on March 9, 2007 — Leave a Comment

The Economic Derivatives Market – by Justin Wolfers
Conditional and Combinatorial Betting – by Chris Hibbert
—
If I had to bet which of the two blog posts will have a better success with the Google Search users, I’d say Chris Hibbert’s one. It is longer, and the main keywords are repeated more often.
If I had to publicize [...]

Posted in Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce | Also tagged Chris Hibbert, Google, Justin Wolfers, prediction markets

Prediction Markets and the Sim Exchange

Written by Chris F. Masse on March 9, 2007 — Leave a Comment

Justin Patterson on Keith Jacks Gamble on the Sim Exchange (a.k.a. the simExchange):
It is a valid criticism, since fundamental analysis is essentially impossible until sales data by NPD Funworld is released (Shiau has some nice empirical results relating to prices ex-ante and ex-post sales figures, and the resulting market corrections…scroll down until you see the [...]

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements | Also tagged Advanced Trading, Brian Shiau, Justin Patterson, prediction markets, Robin Hanson

Brian Shiau: The Sim Exchange Works Fine, Thanks.

Written by Chris F. Masse on March 7, 2007 — 2 Comments

Brian Shiau talks back to Robin Hanson and Keith Jacks Gamble:
[...] Many players realized early on that share prices on the simExchange are completely based on what other people are willing to pay: [...]
[...] Empirical evidence of trading on the simExchange has demonstrated at least some [market] efficiency. [...]
Players who did not trade in the [...]

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchange & Market Designs, Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements, Market Trading, Mechanism Designs | Also tagged Advanced Trading, Brian Shiau, Non-Player, prediction markets, Robin Hanson

Tag Archives: Keith Jacks Gamble

Steve Levitt’s absurd take on blogging

Meet Keith Jacks Gamble.

The Sim Exchange slightly TWEAKS its market-maker algorithm.

The Sim Exchange: Stocks vs. Stock Derivatives (Futures & Options)

Why should I join the simExchange?

Keith Jacks Gamble: simExchange is somewhat OK, but will remained confined in play-money land.

Justin Wolfers vs. Chris Hibbert

Prediction Markets and the Sim Exchange

Brian Shiau: The Sim Exchange Works Fine, Thanks.

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