Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Jakob Nielsen

Usability take of the day for collective forecasters

“It’s time to show most passwords in clear text as users type them.”

Marketing expert Seth Godin recommends that you don’t Twitter.

UPDATE: Seth Godin e-mails me this:
I never said that “you” shouldn’t use twitter. Not at all. I think there are plenty of people who should use twitter. I said I can’t use twitter. Different story. [...] Twitter is great for personal updates. It’s great for public customer updates. It’s great to see the live zeitgeist. [...]

You, the Midas Oracle readers, are a bunch of lazy bastards…!!!… — Take that, loafers…!!!…

The provocative title of this post ( ) refers to the fact that Internet citizens don’t read on the Web.
They scan.
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I’ve just read a Slate article that recaps Jakob Nielsen’s teachings —I highly recommend it to you.
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The NewsFutures website has been revamped —well, very superficially.

They just changed the layout of their website and of their blog.
Same content —and same reliance to, what Jakob Nielsen calls, “marketese”. Triple alas.
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Emile Servan-Schreiber says smart things to journalists —but, unlike Adam Siegel, he is incapable of producing a readable website devoted to enterprise prediction markets.
A shame, for a former journalist.
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INTERNET USABILITY: The longer your blog post (see the x axis), the less of it they will read (see the y axis) —20% on average.

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RELATED: WordPress plugin that quantifies readability.
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To build their “Next Mayor of London” chart widget, the smart asses at BetFair-TradeFair chose to use the most hated web technology —Flash.

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Deluxe Corp.
Flash + Usability @ Google Search
Jakob Nielsen (world’s #1 Internet usability expert)

Flash: 99% Bad (Jakob Nielsen’s Alertbox)
In usability tests of 46 Flash applications, we identified several basic issues related to Web-based functionality’s ephemeral nature. (Jakob Nielsen’s Alertbox)
Top Ten Web Design Mistakes of 2005 – #3 = Flash (Jakob Nielsen’s Alertbox)

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Previously: How BetFair screw up [...]

How have Jason Ruspini’s tax futures markets at InTrade-TradeSports fared, so far?

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The most liquid of the Jason Ruspini-created contracts:
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I would like to talk a bit about the Internet marketing of these prediction markets, in the rest of this present post.
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As you all know, Jason Ruspini published a blog post on his (semi-abandoned) blog (spot the comments), was interviewed by Bloomberg, and then went to BNN [...]

The Formula for Internet Site Success

Jakob Nielsen:
The formula for website success is:

B = V × C × L

Where:

B = amount of business done by the site;
V = unique visitors coming to the site;
C = conversion rate (the percentage of visitors who become customers); (Note that the concept of conversion applies not only to e-commerce sites, but to any site where [...]

The prediction market firms should use e-mail newsletters as their preferred marketing technique.

Says Jakob Nielsen, in his… e-mail newsletter… of course — (thus, no deep link):
HIGH-ROI vs. LOW-ROI INTERNET MARKETING
Marketing Sherpa has released the results of a survey of 3,186 Internet marketers, who were asked about their ROI from various marketing techniques. (Yes, it’s a survey, which is a bad way to get information about [...]

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