Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

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REVEALED: How Inkling Markets is spying on BetFair, Smarkets, InTrade, HSX, NewsFutures, Consensus Point, Spigit, Zocalo, CrowdCast, and Midas Oracle

Spying on Inkling’s competitors

Should Adam Siegel change the name of his prediction market company?

Another “Inkling” is in the news.

Inkling Markets offers a turnkey prediction market platform that can be set up in a few minutes and an API to extend the platform as need be.

Adam SIegel on the LinkedIn group on prediction markets.

Inkling Markets’s Adam Siegel needs salad leaves to relieve tension.

If you listened to that “lecture” at Kellogg, send me an anonymous e-mail to cfm &&AT&& midasoracle **+DOT+** (-com-), and tell me how it went and whether Adam has convinced you of the usefulness of enterprise prediction markets.

Any sane boss should fire an employee who is betting at work.

Nobel Prize for Economics 2009 — Prediction Accuracy

The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has decided to award The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel for 2009 to Elinor Ostrom “for her analysis of economic governance, especially the commons” and Oliver E. Williamson “for his analysis of economic governance, especially the boundaries of the firm”.
Both the bookmakers and [...]

Nobel Prize for Economics 2009 Predictions

The 2009 Nobel prize for economics (2009 Sveriges Riksbank prize in economic sciences) will be awarded on Monday, October 12, 2009.
1. Bookmakers
Ladbrokes’s probabilities (odds) for the 2009 Nobel prize in economics:
Eugene Fama 2/1
Paul Romer 4/1
Ernst Fehr 6/1
Kenneth R. French 6/1
William Nordhaus 6/1
Robert Barro 7/1
Matthew J Rabin 8/1
Jean Tirole 9/1
Martin Weitzman 9/1
Chris Pissarides 10/1
Dale T Mortensen [...]

Who will get the 2009 Nobel Prize for Economics? Don’t bet on it. Too risky.

1. Prediction Markets
2a. InTrade has just opened some Nobel prediction markets —see under “current events”.
2b. Inkling Markets – Which economist will receive the 2009 Nobel Prize for Economics (a.k.a. the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences)?
Previously: Will Chicago get the Olympics? Don’t bet on it. Too risky.
Stay away from these markets where the intention is [...]

Global Warming Exchange update

up at Caveat Bettor.  An excerpt:
For the first 8 months of the year, the index has averaged 0.52 Celsius over baseline, slightly warmer than 2008’s 0.44 Celsius, but still trending lower since the peak of 0.62 in 2005.
Temperatures are rising over the last century. Alarmists claim its our increased carbon emissions; skeptics like me [...]

Tap The Collective – The Videos

Inkling Markets have posted the videos on YouTube.
Here is how to download the videos for “TAP THE COLLECTIVE” that are posted on YouTube:

Install any video capture software. (I recommend Video Download Helper because it is more universal, but Easy YouTube Video Download is good enough. Both software packages are extensions for FireFox.)
Go to the YouTube [...]

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