Tag Archives: influenza

The truth about the H1N1 flu vaccine

Should you get the shot?

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Hubdub Hot Predictions This Week

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week – and we have forecasts on how they’re likely … Continue reading

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Could Google Have Caught Swine Flu (a.k.a. Mexican Flu, or H1N1) Early?

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Flu predictions based on querying behavior (on Google and Yahoo!) are somewhat less impressive than simply looking to the recent past of flu levels.

Via the ultra-demanding Bo Cowgill: Predictions from an autoregressive model outperform [flu] predictions based on search volume. So much for the too-hastily-trumpeted predictive power of Yahoo! and Google. Yet another wisdom-of-crowds hype that ends up down the toilet. And our … Continue reading

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Flu prediction markets can correct Google Flu Trends.

2 practicing physicians laugh at using collective intelligence for nation-wide flu detection: [...] Flu Trends tracks almost perfectly with data on influenzalike illnesses that the CDC obtains from doctors’ offices. And as an added bonus, Flu Trends detects outbreaks up … Continue reading

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Google vs. Prediction Markets — Which of the 2 will detect the flu, first?

An Irish research team hopes to make accurate forecasts of key public health indicators. University College Cork (UCC) School of Medicine + Intrade Dr Dylan Evans: Prediction markets are [specialized], small-scale financial markets operated to predict future events. The idea … Continue reading

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Do give the Nobel prize to Yahoo! research scientist David Pennock. — Santo Subito! [*]

He and his co-authors were the first to publish about the fact that flu-related searches on the Web are precise predictors of the upcoming influenza outbreaks. Congrats. Best wishes for the rest of their scientific career. [*] “Make him a … Continue reading

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Who needs the Iowa Health Prediction Exchange anymore now that we have Google Flu Trends?

- Google Flu Trends – Iowa Health Prediction Market – BBC New York Times WSJ Health blog -

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ALL our real-money prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) have a play-money ground.

BetFair – (Hammersmith, London, England, United Kingdom, E.U.) BetFair Play For Fun Only English Soccer TradeSports – (The Netherlands Antilles) Play-Money TradeSports — PredictionX — Launched in February 2006. InTrade – (Dublin, Ireland, E.U.) FT Predict — (play-money InTrade with … Continue reading

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Iowa Health Prediction Market Opens Trading On Avian Flu Market.

Press release: “Many health care workers are the first to know about influenza activity in their communities and that information can help predict the course of an infectious disease. This forecasting tool taps into that disperse knowledge to provide important … Continue reading

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