Tag Archives: health care

The sudden dip in March 16′s InTrade ObamaCare prediction market was an intentional coup.

Here’s the latest discussion.

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Allegedly, an idiot pressed the wrong button on March 16′s InTrade ObamaCare prediction market. Do you buy it?

Marcus Shea: Here’s the most likely scenario as to what happened here: Somebody had a decent short position. Say they had about 65 shares (the volume bars indicate that this was likely a < 100 share transaction, ie, < $5 … Continue reading

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InTrade prediction markets “got health care wrong”… — dixit Daniel Gross of Slate, a site I will no longer read.

Slate’s Daniel Gross: Don’t Short Obama Why political futures markets got the health care bill so wrong. By Daniel Gross Posted Monday, March 22, 2010, at 6:05 PM ET It would be very difficult to tote up all the times … Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

“InTrade should address this incident and suspend the account of whoever did this.”

Dixit Jason Ruspini.

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OBAMACARE PREDICTION MARKET WAS BRIEFLY MANIPULATED YESTERDAY EVENING SO IT WOULD ARTIFICIALLY CLOSE AT $35. – [CHART]

IT IS NOW BACK TO ABOVE $60. See Jason Ruspini’s comment. UPDATE: Carlos Graterol. Joe Weisenthal. Gawker. Max Keiser. ADDENDUM More info on health care reform on Memeorandum and Politico.

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Max Keiser weighs in on potential insider trading and hypothetical manipulation in the ObamaCare prediction market at InTrade.

Max says that the political prediction markets are “routinely manipulated” and we often see “price rigging”… 9:57 into: Previously: What has been the best InTrade prediction market ever? Has the ObamaCare prediction market at InTrade been “ahead of the commentary”?

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Market Efficiency), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Insider trading in the InTrade prediction market on health care reform?

InTrade CEO John Delaney: …it is a reasonably active market but atypically a lot of the trade is coming from the DC area when normally we might see trade coming from all the major urban areas. ADDENDUM: For your information, … Continue reading

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InTrade CEO John Delaney refused to improve the fairness of the trading on his Ireland-based event derivative exchange.

InTrade — US.GOVT.HEALTHPLAN.DEC09 One InTrade trader, in October 2009: The four re-definitions that have (so far) been necessary during the 3-month life of the US.GOVT.HEALTHPLAN.DEC09 contracts have brought to my attention that Intrade, to the best of my knowledge, does … Continue reading

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The US Senate has come up with a stupider version of the health care reform than the House’s one.

Peter Schiff: Health care reform = socialized medicine

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The health-care debacle on InTrade

[The Intrade event derivative traders] “are getting more and more alienated by the actions and judgments of Intrade’s management.” Is InTrade mis-managed? Many people are starting to think so, apparently. Still think that Chris Masse of Midas Oracle is too … Continue reading

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