Tag Archives: Greg Mankiw

Greg Mankiw doesn’t agree with the InTrade prediction markets on the future tax rates.

Posted on November 2, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

“This surprises me.” The Jason Ruspini prediction markets (the “tax futures”).

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged future tax rates, Greg Mankiw, InTrade, Jason Ruspini, prediction markets, tax futures | 16 Comments

Multi-millionaire, Republican, professor of economics Greg Mankiw uses Jason Ruspini’s tax prediction markets at InTrade to assess the probability that a hypothetical John McCain presidency starting in 2009 assumes a raise in federal taxes.

Posted on September 10, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Via Marginal Revolution P(tax hike / McCain) = 74%. APPENDIX: Robin Hanson does not know yet who he is going to vote for, in November 2008… and feels that no scholar can help him.

Posted in Analysis (Data), Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 US congressional elections, 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, betting markets, Economics, event derivative markets, event derivatives, federal taxes, Greg Mankiw, InTrade, Jason Ruspini, Politics, prediction markets, tax hike, tax prediction markets, tax raise, US congressional elections, US elections, US elections prediction, US politics, US presidential elections, US taxes prediction | Leave a comment

Who did best in explaining the prediction markets to the lynching crowd?

Posted on January 11, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

After the New Hampshire fiasco, 16 18 people came to defend the prediction markets, so far. So far, the best takes are from: George Tziralis Robin Hanson Jonathan Kennedy and I’ll give the 4th spot to a combo, mixing takes … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta) | Tagged accuracy, Adam, Adam Siegel, Brent Stinsky, Chris Hibbert, Christmas, Collective Intelligence, critics, David Jack, David Pennock, David Perry, David Yu, Donald Luskin, Emile Servan-Schreiber, event derivative markets, event derivatives, George Tziralis, Greg Mankiw, James Surowiecki, Jed Christiansen, John Delaney, John Tierney, Jonathan Kennedy, Ken Kittlitz, Mark Davis, Mike Linksvayer, New Hampshire, Panos Ipeirotis, Paul Tetlock, prediction markets, Richard Borghesi, Robin Hanson, Steve Bass, Steve Roman, Tyler Cowen, wisdom of crowds, YouTube | 1 Comment

Yes, Economics is a Science.

Posted on November 23, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

ESA: The Economic Science Association (ESA) is a professional organization devoted to economics as an observational science, using controlled experiments to learn about economic behavior. The ESA welcomes participation by economists interested in the results of such experiments, as well … Continue reading →

Posted in Economics, Explainers | Tagged Economic Science Association, Economics, ESA, experimental economics, Greg Mankiw, public finance, Science, Tyler Cowen | 1 Comment

Who will get the 2007 Nobel prize in economics?

Posted on October 15, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Steve Levitt (from the New York Times / Freakonomics blog): 4) Both Ladbrokes and InTrade allow betting on who will win the Economics Nobel Prize. This is crazy. Nobody cares about this except economists, and hardly any economists gamble! Only … Continue reading →

Posted in Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged economist, Eric S. Maskin, Felix Salmon, Gene Fama, Greg Mankiw, Institute for Advanced Study, Institute for Advanced Study at Princeton University, Leonid Hurwicz, manager, Mike Giberson, Minnesota, New York Times, Niall O'Connor, Paul Romer, Peter Diamond, planner /manager, Princeton University, Robert Barro, Roger B. Myerson, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, social planner, Steve Levitt, the New York Times, the University of Chicago, University of Minnesota, USD | 3 Comments

Forecasting Tools for Anything

Posted on August 31, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Via economist Greg Mankiw, economist Ian Ayres: Featured In Super Crunchers: Predict Your Child’s Due Date (Ayres) Predict the Value of Bordeaux (Ayres) Predict Justice Kennedy’s Vote (Ayres) Personal/Family: Predict How Long You’ll Live (Northwest Mutual) Predict Your Child’s Due … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting (Science & Practice), Resources - References | Tagged Anything Via economist, Book Title, Cancer, Diabetes, economist, Greg Mankiw, heart disease, Ian Ayres, Lulu Titlescorer, Mayo Clinic, Microsoft, MLB, National Football League, NFL, Saskatchewan, stroke, University of Saskatchewan | Leave a comment

Publish or Perish is a software program that retrieves and analyzes academic citations.

Posted on August 27, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Via Greg Mankiw, Publish or Perish: Publish or Perish is a software program that retrieves and analyzes academic citations. It uses Google Scholar to obtain the raw citations, then analyzes these and presents the following statistics: * Total number of … Continue reading →

Posted in Information Technology | Tagged author, Google, Greg Mankiw, software program | Leave a comment

Hal Varian becomes Google’s chief economist.

Posted on July 20, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

— Via Greg Mankiw (whom you will have to read between the lines), this New York Times piece: The View column will now be written by a rotating panel of outside economists. Besides Mr. Mankiw, it will include Alan Blinder, … Continue reading →

Posted in Business, Consulting | Tagged Alan Blinder, Chief Economist, Google, Greg Mankiw, Hal R. Varian, Hal Varian, Judith Chevalier, Lester Thurow, Meet Hal Varian, New York Times, official business title, Professor, Robert Frank, Robert Shiller, technical data analyst, The Wall Street Journal, Tyler Cowen, Wall Street Journal | 1 Comment

Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? Redux.

Posted on May 31, 2007 by Justin Wolfers

Both Eric Zitzewitz and I have recently noticed some suspicious activity in the InTrade market for whether Hillary Clinton will be elected President, with someone bidding up her odds from about 25 to around 40 (currently hovering at 38). This … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Meta) | Tagged Eric Zitzewitz, Greg Mankiw, Hillary Clinton, prediction markets, President, Robin Hanson | 4 Comments

Manipulation can affect prices.

Posted on May 30, 2007 by Eric Zitzewitz

For the last two weeks a very interesting manipulation has been going on in Intrade‘s “Hillary Clinton for President” contract. 1. The contract had been trading between 23 and 26 all year. It has consistently been about half the price … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Market Calls), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged Bush, Greg Mankiw, Hanson, Hillary Clinton, media mention, Palm Desert, President, Republican Party, slightly weaker general election candidate, Tyler Cowen, USD | 10 Comments

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