Robin Hanson debates a Mencius Moldbug on prediction markets, decision markets, and… futarchy:
Foresight 2010 debate: Futarchy from Monica Anderson on Vimeo.
Download this post to watch the video —if your feed reader does not show it to you.
Who cares about that Mencius Moldbug anyway?
Previously.
- Robin Hanson comments on Paul Hewitt’s blog.
- Paul Hewitt comments on Eric Crampton’s blog.
- Paul Hewitt comments on Robin Hanson’s blog. Many exchanges with Robin Hanson. Read it all.
- Paul Hewitt:
[...] My point is that the case for prediction markets has not been made, at all. There is a tiny bit of proof that [...]
Paul Hewitt: The Essential Prerequisite for Adopting Prediction Markets
It is a long text, so I will post again about it, in the near future. (Happy Xmas, by the way.)
ADDENDUM: Saturday, January 16, 2010: Debate between Robin Hanson and Mencius Moldbug
Saturday, January 16, 2010
Debate between Robin Hanson and blogger Mencius Moldbug about futarchy, “a subject on which fur has flown over the blogosphere.”
… “but we’ll never know how well it works until someone puts it to the test.“
Exactly. Robin Hanson, do act on your proposal —instead of doing blah blah blah. The flaw(s) in the futarchy idea will appear in plain light, then.
Robin Hanson:
Yes of course new ideas for organizations should be tried first in smaller organizations. Do let me know of any small orgs interesting in experimenting.
Here’s how to contact Robin Hanson:
rhanson
AT
gmu
DOT
edu
In the title of the e-mail, state, “I am your man for your futarchy experiment“.
Why doesn’t Robin Hanson implement his grandiose idea on a small organization (like George Mason University), as opposed to a national government, to see whether it makes sense? I suspect it doesn’t. Prediction markets have very, very slightly improved the world since 1988, my good doctor Hanson. That does not make a strong case for [...]
And that makes some people uncomfortable. The debate on Robin Hanson’s idea futures (prediction markets, decision-aid markets, decision markets, futarchy, etc.) is spreading from Overcoming Bias to other blogs. Here is Robin Hanson:
Nick, I never said there are prediction markets that don’t influence decisions. On modeling factors to get trade existing, I mean any one [...]
Robin Hanson:
I’m not proposing to implement futarchy full stop one day; I’m proposing to run a series of increasingly large trials. That would give you the data you want.
Wow, modesty and humility. Mark the day.
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