Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: flu

Novartis CEO Dr. Daniel Vasella on producing H1N1 vaccine.

And here’s a good Gawker post on Nouriel Roubini’s recent predictions.

The truth about the H1N1 flu vaccine

Should you get the shot?

Could Google Have Caught Swine Flu (a.k.a. Mexican Flu, or H1N1) Early?

Flu predictions based on querying behavior (on Google and Yahoo!) are somewhat less impressive than simply looking to the recent past of flu levels.

Via the ultra-demanding Bo Cowgill:
Predictions from an autoregressive model outperform [flu] predictions based on search volume.
So much for the too-hastily-trumpeted predictive power of Yahoo! and Google. Yet another wisdom-of-crowds hype that ends up down the toilet.
And our research scientist David Pennock will have to find another topic (for instance, prediction markets) to get a Nobel [...]

Flu prediction markets can correct Google Flu Trends.

2 practicing physicians laugh at using collective intelligence for nation-wide flu detection:
[...] Flu Trends tracks almost perfectly with data on influenzalike illnesses that the CDC obtains from doctors’ offices. And as an added bonus, Flu Trends detects outbreaks up to two weeks earlier, when people are still sitting at home sneezing into their keyboards. [...]
But [...]

Google vs. Prediction Markets — Which of the 2 will detect the flu, first?

An Irish research team hopes to make accurate forecasts of key public health indicators.
University College Cork (UCC) School of Medicine + Intrade
Dr Dylan Evans:
Prediction markets are [specialized], small-scale financial markets operated to predict future events. The idea is that the collected knowledge of many people, each with a different perspective, will be more accurate than [...]

Do give the Nobel prize to Yahoo! research scientist David Pennock. — Santo Subito! [*]

He and his co-authors were the first to publish about the fact that flu-related searches on the Web are precise predictors of the upcoming influenza outbreaks.
Congrats.
Best wishes for the rest of their scientific career.
[*] “Make him a Saint, now!”, in Italian.

Who needs the Iowa Health Prediction Exchange anymore now that we have Google Flu Trends?

- Google Flu Trends
- Iowa Health Prediction Market
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BBC
New York Times
WSJ Health blog
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